Bitcoin Price In 2020 – A very bullish and very bearish forecast

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. (Photo by S3studio / Getty Images)

The Bitcoin game is raging, and so is its price volatility, which can go up and down by 1000 points in a few days

This is good for Bitcoin traders, provided they are smart enough and lucky enough to buy and sell at the right time.

But for investors, Bitcoin's price volatility is just "noise" "which makes it difficult to see where digital currency will be, say, for years.

To understand this, my student Greg Giordano and I have been doing a bit of econometric work lately." Greg performed two econometric models, the Model of Haye and models Wheatley – see table 3. On the one hand, Haye's model predicts a price of $ 55,931.60.

This is a very bullish forecast. For a good reason: it focuses on the supply side of the Bitcoin market, which is expected to grow at an ever slower pace, as it loses to the limit.

On the other side, the Wheatley model is priced at $ 2352.03. This is a very bearish forecast, even for a good reason. The model focuses on the use of Bitcoin, ie on the demand side of the Bitcoin market. And Bitcoin's demand has grown slowly, as evidenced by a recent Gallup poll

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Table 1

Currency Price
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 7.408.53
Ethereum (ETH) $ 414.22
XRP 0.44 [19659018] ** Starting from 8/3/18, at 9:30 pm

Source: Coinranking.com

[Ed. note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment. Disclosure: I don’t own any Bitcoin, Greg Giordano owns Bitcoin.]

Table 2

Number of cryptocurrencies that advanced / refused among the top 100 positions

Cryptocurrencies Advance / Decline [19659023]] Number
Advance 7
Decline 93

Source: Coinmarketcap.com & nbsp; 8/3/18 at 9:30 am

Table 3 [19659003] Two forecasts for the price of Bitcoins in 2020

Model for forecasting Price 2020 Notes
Hayes

Bitcoin extraction difficulty will increase at a monthly rate of 7% (in the last two years the rate was 14% monthly)

& nbsp;

Wheatley $ 2,352.03 Transactions / day will follow the same pattern of monthly increase 2%

"& nbsp; Wheatley's model is known to evaluate bitcoin at a much lower number, "explains Greg. "Their article is known to declare the total capitalization of bitcoin to about $ 20 billion when the actual number is greater than $ 130 billion, so Wheatley's estimate is that it points to the intrinsic bitcoin that is lower than all other estimates I've seen. "MIT has done a full review on Wheatley." However, I believe there is still value to be found in Wheatley's estimate. "

But it will not leave much value to investors who buy at these prices, if the model prediction came true.

Again, some Bitcoin experts subscribe to a bullish scenario for long-term Bitcoin. Steven Russo, Kripti's executive vice president, is one of them. "Bitcoin is unquestionably still in its infancy and takes extra time to make it mature, it's going to happen, and there's still money to do for those with heart, stomach and patience." It's not unreasonable to think that returns could be from 3x to 5x over the next five years. "

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. (Photo by S3studio / Getty Images)

The Bitcoin game is raging and so is its price volatility, which can go up and down by 1000 points in a matter of days

This is good for Bitcoin traders, provided they are smart and lucky enough to buy and sell at the right time.

But for investors, Bitcoin's price volatility is just "noise" that makes difficult to see the digital currency position will be between, say, years from now.

To understand it, my student Greg Giordano and I have been doing a little bit of econometric work lately. Greg has executed two econometric models, the Haye's model and the Wheatley -See table 3. On the one hand, Haye's model is priced at $ 55,931.60.

This is a very bullish forecast, for a good reason: it focuses on the side of the Bitcoin market offer, which will have to he grew at an ever slower pace, approaching the limit.

On the other side, th The Wheatley model is priced at $ 2352.03. This is a very bearish forecast, even for a good reason. The model focuses on the use of Bitcoin, ie on the demand side of the Bitcoin market. And Bitcoin's demand has grown slowly, as a recent Gallup poll shows.

Table 1

Currency Price
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 7.408.53
Ethereum (ETH) $ 414.22
XRP 0.44 [19659063] ** Starting from 8 / 3/18, at 9:30 pm

Source: Coinranking.com

[Ed. note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment. Disclosure: I don’t own any Bitcoin, Greg Giordano owns Bitcoin.]

Table 2

Number of cryptocurrencies that advanced / decreased in the first 100 degrees

Cryptocurrencies Advance / Decline Number
Advance 7
Decline 93

Source: Coinmarketcap.com 8/3/18 to 9:30

Table 3

Two forecasts for the price of Bitcoins in 2020

Forecasting model Price 2020 Notes
Hayes $ 55,931.60

Bitcoin extraction difficulty will increase at the monthly rate of 7% (in the last two years the rate was 14% monthly e) [19659036] [19659083] Wheatley

$ 2,352.03 The transactions / day will follow the same pattern of monthly increase of 2%

"The Wheatley model is known to evaluate bitcoin to a number much lower, "explains Greg. "Their article is known to declare the total capitalization of bitcoin to about $ 20 billion when the actual number is greater than $ 130 billion, so Wheatley's estimate is that it points to the intrinsic bitcoin that is lower than all other estimates I've seen. "MIT has done a full review on Wheatley." However, I believe there is still value to be found in Wheatley's estimate. "

But it will not leave much value to investors who buy at these prices, if the model prediction came true.

Again, some Bitcoin experts subscribe to a bullish scenario for long-term Bitcoin. Steven Russo, Kripti's executive vice president, is one of them. "Bitcoin is unquestionably still in its infancy and takes extra time to make it mature.It's going to happen, and there's still money to do for those with heart, stomach and patience." It is not unreasonable to think that returns could be 3 to 5 times over the next five years. "

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