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Bitcoin (BTC) has lost ~ 17% in the last twelve days, after a bullish rise for most of July, and it is currently down 65% from its December high. The market capitalization stands at 120 billion US dollars, with 1.78 billion dollars traded in the last 24 hours.
The OTC (globally report over the counter) volume of LocalBitcoins.com also remains sharply declining from December to January and continues to decline. The trade volume of the Venezuelan Bolivar remains high, fueled by hyperinflation in the region. Similar to the Venezuelan launch of Petro, China, India, Russia Iran, Japan, Singapore, Jamaica and Kyrgyzstan are all experiencing a nationalized cryptocurrency. Iran and Russia hope to use the crypt to de-dollarize the oil trade and the US sanctions on the skirt . The entire budget of Petros remains in a single NEM address.
In January, LocalBitcoins implemented the Know Your Customer and Anti Money Laundering (KYC / AML) mandatory requirements. Although this may provide greater legitimacy in the future, it will also push so-called 'dark money transactions' on other avenues. In 2014, an American individual, Thomas Costanzo, used a peer-to-peer exchange platform to recycle $ 81 billion worth of drug money, telling federal agents that "it was a great way to limit their exposure. to the forces of order ". Constantius is now serving a term of imprisonment of 41 months in the federal prison.
The volume traded in BTC in the last 24 hours was driven by the Tether (USDT) and US Dollar (USD) markets for the tenth consecutive week, mainly on Binance, OKEx and Bitfinex. The halter is a centralized cryptocurrency anchored to the US dollar, and has been subject to continuous control over a lack of transparency regarding the USD reserve to support the currency.
Former Director of FBI Louis Freeh stressed the continued demand for cryptographic audits at the market level. Freeh is also a partner of the Freeh, Sporkin & Sullivan LLP (FSS) law firm, which was retained by Tether to provide legal advice and advice on a review of the relevant bank account documentation, policies and procedures of Tether and a randomized inspection of the number of outstanding Tethers and the corresponding foreign exchange reserves. Tether subsequently issued a report on the funds in June. While a possible conflict of interest remains, Freeh is highly reliable and well known for his private investigations on Penn State University, FIFA and Daimler Chrysler.
At the same time, both in an article and in a podcast with Trace Mayer, Wall Street veteran Caitlin Long discussed the dangers of malicious financialization, which creates a market for unsecured paper claims on BTC. In the metals market, this continues to be a growing problem, the claims on gold and silver per ounce paper are 233: 1 and 517: 1 respectively.
Long argues that this leveraged financial leverage is harmful and breaks down the heritage from its real value. These types of paper certificates not covered by BTC already exist on CBOE and CME futures and will probably also exist on the ICE futures platform.
In 2015, Mayer discussed the likelihood of positive financialization as one of the seven network effects for BTC, including; remittances, micropayments, peer-to-peer loans and the exchange of securities and securities. Both Long and Mayer conclude that negative financialisation, based on the granting of credit holders for paper credit lending, will be much more difficult to achieve, given that long-term holders will hardly provide their private keys to a custodian for this type of financing. [19659002] In Asia, volumes of the Japanese yen (JPY), the Korean won (KRW), the Chinese yen (CNY) remained low compared to last year. Recently, the Korea stock exchange underwent an audit and was found to hold 100% of customer funds with a further 27% in reserve. The largest stock exchange in Korea, Bithumb, resumed deposits and withdrawals this week after stopping them for a short period at the end of June for $ 30 million.
OKEx futures, which use a system of socialized loss for futures regulation, stole the limelight in the trading arena this week after a long trade of $ 416 million has been called in the margin and it has not been clarified in regulation. A trade is a margin called or liquidated when the value of the account falls below the minimum value. A limit order is then placed on the order book equal to the size of the liquidated position. If the position is not deleted, it remains "open" until the settlement, which occurs once a week.
Normally, these open liquidations are closed by price action. However, the price fell far below the settlement price of US $ 8.020 on the quarterly futures contract and was not liquidated. When this happens, the insurance fund, which accumulates funds through liquidation, pays the difference. When the insurance fund is empty, the losses become socialized, which means that the clawback occurs on the trader's profits for that week. Although this system seems risky from a trading standpoint, OKEx futures are known to many users as " woodchipper " because of its efficiency in liquidating open liquidations and minimizing socialized losses.
Even after adding 2,500 BTCs of OKEx's equity fund to the insurance fund, a recovery of around 17% has occurred. A 10% clawback also occurred before July. OKEx has also announced plans to mitigate this problem in the future; increase margin margins when opening wider positions on the cross-border, apply the maximum position size when applying the fixed margin, adjust the profit margin formula, adjust the settlement price mechanism, adjust the way in which the Forced liquidations have an impact on the market and optimize the use of the insurance fund.
Within the broader sector, Square, a mobile payment service similar to Venmo, revealed that Cash.App has accumulated US $ 37 million in BTC revenue last quarter, offsetting the United States. $ 400,000 in profit, twice the previous quarter. Square also revealed that they are now using private brokers for BTC transactions rather than for public exchanges.
Another BTC payment processor, BitPay, has revealed that its service has processed $ 1.2 billion in 2017. BitPay recently had its seventh anniversary and is used by over 100,000 merchants worldwide. BitPay also has a history of failed SegWit2x fork support and strongly supported Bitcoin Cash, including deceptively subsidizing BCH commissions during overhead for BTC commissions.
Coinbase announced a WooCommerce plug-in this week, enabling quick and easy online transactions in BTC and LTC. WooCommerce is an open source eCommerce plugin for WordPress, which accounts for over 28% of all online stores. WooCommerce was also used on Lightning Network through Jack Mallers' Zap wallet.
The Intercontinental Exchange has announced the Bakkt App that will allow both a future physically delivered BTC and a payment gateway developed by Microsoft and used by Starbucks. A spokesperson for Starbucks made it clear that they are "not accepting digital resources from Starbucks," but the exchange will convert digital resources like Bitcoins into US dollars, which can be used by Starbucks, "as reported by Motherboard. Ex-Starbucks CEO, Howard Schultz, said earlier: "I do not think Bitcoin will become a currency today or in the future," but was thrilled with the use of blockchain technology.
Germany's second largest stock exchange Börse Stuttgart is also releasing an encryption app and an end-to-end encryption infrastructure, while SBI's Japanese holdings have announced 39, expansion of its cryptographic footprint by developing a derivative cryptographic platform.
In further news, the Monte. Gox bankruptcy and the creditors' saga continue, following a civil rehabilitation announcement in June. Another announcement was released this week, indicating continued rehabilitation preparations by returning approximately 166,000 BTC and 168,000 BCH to users. The revised policy found that the first payment to creditors will be made quickly after approval and confirmation of the recovery plan, probably in May or June 2019.
The rehabilitation plan also mentions "altcoin" liquidity and holdings. that will be sold and distributed to users too. No direct reference has been made to the myriad of other Bitcoin forks available to be claimed, which also represent several million dollars.
Turning to the state of the network, despite the profitability of the mines approaching the historical minimum, the hash rate and difficulty continue to record record highs. While many factors influence mining profitability, such as price, blocking time, difficulty, block reward and transaction fees, the reduction in profitability increases the risk of further centralization of mining activity, both through mining and geographic pools. The next Bitcoin block premium has halved by May 2020.
One of Crypto's largest mining hardware producers, Bitmain, reported net income of $ 1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2018. there were also rumors and reports that Bitmain is preparing for an IPO after a series B round of financing with a valuation of $ 15 billion. In September 2017, Bitmain received $ 50 million during a Series A funding round from Sequoia Capital and IDG Capital. Another company focused on hardware, Canaan Creative, unveiled a US $ 1 billion IPO in July. The company intends to quote in Hong Kong.
The head of Bitmain and AntPool, Jihan Wu, has previously registered a company in the state of Washington. Ant Creek LLC. it was registered in June 2017. In April this year, Walla Walla County approved a land and land purchase option, which will allow Ant Creek LLC to develop a & # 39; mining operation. Washington State was a hotbed for mining crypto operations due to cheap electricity and vast areas of undeveloped land.
While the number of transactions per day is on average 180,000-200,000 since June has slowly increased. This key metric has declined significantly for a number of leading cryptocurrencies over the course of this year. Transaction costs also fell significantly, as did the average value of USD transactions, which can be partly attributed to the decline in bitcoin prices. Unconfirmed transactions also drastically decreased this year. There are currently less than 2,000 pending confirmation transactions.
On-chain transactions per day have not only decreased due to the lack of network usage but also the transaction batch, where a transaction is sent to multiple addresses at the same time instead of each transaction sent individually. The ratio between the outputs per transaction averaged 2.9 results per transaction over the year, suggesting that the practice has become a mainstay. There have also been several days this year with a peak in the outputs, indicating a concerted effort to increase the efficiency of transactions.
In addition, the SegWit update protocol, which currently accounts for ~ 38.5% of transactions, was also a factor that significantly contributed to the decline in the average rate. A SegWit transaction takes less block space than a traditional transaction, allowing SegWit users to pay less commissions accrued to achieve the same number of transactions.
Destroyed Bitcoin Days (BDD), a measure of long-term holding and coin dormancy, can be used to analyze the first ones that cash or move coins between portfolios. For example, if someone has 10BTC received 10 days ago and then spend it, 100 days bitcoins have been destroyed.
The highest months in BDD since Bitcoin has had a strong correlation with highs or lows in Bitcoin. A peak in the BDD in July 2017 was probably related to Bitcoin's bitcoin cash fork in August. On 20 June, a spike in the BDD preceded a decline in the price of Bitcoin two days later, but this should not be seen as a correlation 1: 1. An increase in BDD may also represent custodial providers that shift coins between portfolios , which is typical of the main exchanges. In the last year, BDD continued to decline, suggesting that long-term holders will keep funds in dormant cold storage.
Using a Kalichkin Network Value Report for 30-day transactions (NVTs), BTC remains in the upper third of its historical range. Although NVT is difficult to compare between currencies that use different types of transactions, the report can be used to evaluate the relative utility of a network over time. NVT has not been so high since January 2015, which suggests a reduction in the use of the network on the basis of the amount of the dollar subject to the transaction.
In addition, the points of flexion in NVT can be correlated with extreme highs or lows. With the advent of alternative inbound and outbound chain methods for sending transactions, such as batching and Lightning networks, the new normality for NVT could take many months.
Turning to the activities of the developers, Bitcoin Core v0.16.2 was released last week with minor improvements to the network, while the BTC project on GitHub had a total of 1,775 commissions in the last year. Most coins use the GitHub developer community, where files are saved in folders called "repository" or "repos" and changes to these files are recorded with "commit". Although commits represent quantity and not necessarily quality, a higher number of commits
Technical analysis
Because the price trend of bitcoins goes from bearish to neutral , capturing the start of the next change in the direction of the market is essential to maximize returns. The strength or weakness of the current trend can be analyzed with the Wyckoff method, Pitchforks, Ichimoku Cloud, oscillators, graphical charts and exponential moving averages (EMA). Further basic information on the technical analysis discussed below is available here.
The price structure on the daily chart continues to correlate strongly with a typical Wyckoff accumulation phase. The Wyckoff method can be used to determine where the price is placed within a cyclic model. An accumulation phase occurs before a new markup phase. BTC experienced one of these classic accumulation periods throughout 2015. A successful accumulation period would be highly indicative of a prolonged uptrend.
BTC's pricing structure has now formed a Wyckoff-style low-volume spring, followed by a sign of strength (SOS). If this interpretation is correct, the price is currently in Phase D indicating a shift at the top of the trading interval to ~ US $ 11,000. The last support point (LPS) is an ideal opportunity for long entry or an opportunity to add to an existing long position.
Turning to the original upward trend The pitchfork at the beginning of 2015, with anchor points in January, May and August of the same year, Price has recently passed the average reversal point twice. The price fell north of this trend in October 2017 and again is currently in the upper half of the trend on the median line. Based on the diagonal resistance and the previous rate of change, a potential upside target of $ 10,000-US $ 12,000 is possible.
Looking at the Cloud Ichimoku, there are four metric keys; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross and the Lagging Span. The best voice always occurs when most signals go from bearish to bullish or vice versa.
Cloud metrics in the weekly time frame are; price under Cloud, Bearish Cloud, bearish cross TK and Lagging Span below the price and above Cloud. Together these signals represent a bearish trend. The inclusion of a long position would not be guaranteed until price breaks exceed the Cloud. The apartment Kumo and Kijun for $ 10,000 and US $ 11,000 should behave as a strong resistance, but will also act as a magnet for the price. A turnaround by Kumo in the week of December 17 shows a high-probability area for a bullish break above the cloud, if momentum exists.
Price structure and the descending profile of the volume also suggests a possible model of a falling wedge-shaped graph. If accurate, the model indicates a target of ~ US $ 21,000, which is simply the widest length of the wedge projected vertically at the most likely break point. The goal is also close to the annual R1 pin, at US $ 22,000 (not shown).
In addition, three oscillators that measure the momentum that have started to turn or flip upward; RSI is flirting with a close above 50, representing a bullish territory, Stoch RSI has passed bullish and has exceeded 20 (not shown), and the MACD signal lines have passed bullish with a bullish histogram.
In the daily chart, Cloud metrics are; price in Cloud, Bearish Cloud, bullish cross TK, and Lagging Span below the price and above Cloud. This is the first bullish cross TK from May (green arrow). Once again, a long voice based on the traditional cloud strategy does not activate until the price violation is not the cloud. A candle near the Cloud would be the first time it happened all year. A long Kumo dish of ~ US $ 7.850 should act as a magnet for the price.
In the two-day chart, the price had passed both the 50EMA and the 200EMA. The volume profile in decline is indicative of price consolidation. The current cross 50 / 200EMA is a bullish and bullish continuation would be likely if the EMA touched but failed to cross bearish. The 50 and 200EMA on the daily chart remain crossed on the downside (not shown) with a price below 50 and 200EMA.
Conclusion
The BTC network has never been subject to the levels of institutional interest currently observed. Globally, stock exchanges, derivatives markets, and trade solutions are increasingly understanding that the crypt is a serious asset class. Collectively, this effect will substantially increase BTC's financialization and liquidity.
Techniques continue to suggest a US $ 10,000 level test in the coming weeks, followed by an extended consolidation period before the next bullish markup phase. Trend indicators and high-time oscillators have moved from bearish to neutral or even bullish. A bullish Kumo breakout, if it occurs, is likely to be the start of a sustained uptrend for several weeks. A decision by the SEC on the part of BTC from the SEC as from August could be the catalyst needed to immediately trigger price action towards the $ 10,000 level.
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