Bitcoin (BTC) is not starting a new cycle before falling back to $ 5,800. In order for Bitcoin (BTC) to start a new cycle, it must first find a fund. So far, the price has marked lower peaks and lower lows since the beginning of this correction, as can be seen on the daily chart for BTC / USD above. If Bitcoin (BTC) had already found a fund, then it would have been possible to stop the downtrend at this stage and start a new cycle. This is because most of the technical indicators are already in oversold territory and a trend reversal at this point would not have been a surprise.
However, despite the fact that the Bitcoin RSI (BTC) approaches the oversold levels and the DeMarker indicator and signaling a short-term reversal, the price could not find a fund so far. The price has started trading in a triangle since January of this year and has not yet exceeded the upper or lower limit. Bitcoin (BTC) managed to touch the lower limit of this triangle at $ 5,800 twice. There is no doubt that it will touch the lower limit of this triangle for the third time or not. The question, however, is whether it will end up starting a trend reversal or will it decrease to enter a long-term bear market?
The above weekly chart for BNC: BLX shows much better that Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet found a fund. From the beginning of 2016, the price has started to fall near the bottom of the long-term uptrend channel of Bitcoin (BTC). To complete a correction, the price had to re-enter a lower level by testing the lower limit of this ascending channel. The yellow bar below the trend line shows the time when Bitcoin (BTC) was intended for the fund, but it does not. To the surprise of some of the early investors, Bitcoin (BTC) has also made a new ATH but has not yet funded.
Most investors who started playing think that Bitcoin (BTC) Futures or whale manipulation has to do with the recent correction. I agree that those were the catalysts, but I do not agree that those were the reasons. The topic is the same as before. The first investors knew that Bitcoin (BTC) did not finish what had started. The price had to touch the bottom of this rising channel before starting a new cycle. Never in the history of Bitcoin (BTC) the price has started a new cycle without first touching the bottom of the ascending channel.
The resistance that Bitcoin (BTC) ran on the back of July 27th as can be seen above on the 4H table for BTC / USD was already expected as indicated in a my previous analysis. This constituted a strong impediment to further increases as it was a confluence between the resistance of the time axis and the price axis. While many were asking for a climb to $ 10,000 from there, we asked for the continuation of the correction. The price action post July 27 is a mirror image of the price action before that. It is in Bitcoin's best interest (BTC) that its price tests the $ 5,800 level again to fund, so it can start a new cycle.