Biden next administration and the Arab world

When every presidential election is held in the United States, a question is asked in all the capitals of the world; “What are the implications for us of this candidate’s victory?” While Americans are busy looking at candidates ‘best domestic policies and examining their personalities, overseas politicians and analysts are busy examining candidates’ attitudes towards foreign affairs and studying foreign policy teams during the election period. It is natural that all this attention is devoted to the transfer of power in the great world power, even if the election campaigns focus on internal issues.

Now, following the announcement of Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidency, the focus is on his policies and team, with speculation on the first steps he should take upon his arrival at the White House at the end of next January. He made clear his intention to return to the Paris climate agreement and restore relations with the World Health Organization after incumbent President Donald Trump retired. Although the Arab world questions its policies towards the region in particular, these two steps are important for the region and for the world. Without serious international coordination to limit the repercussions of the “Covid 19” epidemic and coordination to tackle climate change, our collective future is threatened.

Biden’s story in the U.S. Senate and chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee means he will be interested in foreign affairs, but his time will be limited, which limits his ability to delve into the details of those policies. Furthermore, no doubt, the next president of the United States will be concerned before the “Covid 19” epidemic and the ways to deal with its economic, social and political consequences. The election results have once again confirmed the extent of the rift in American society. Therefore, the new president will long be concerned about internal affairs. There is a reality that cannot be denied: the American people do not want to engage in new wars, nor that their country appear at the forefront of international action. The American voter’s first and last concern is the domestic situation, and there are 70 million voters who voted for Trump, and Biden and the Democrats need to take that into account when running the country.

Therefore, his choice of the foreign affairs team is hugely important, especially as he is expected to restore vitality to the State Department, which is reviewing its role under President Trump. The names of many well-known figures in Democratic circles circulate for senior administration positions, led by officials who worked in the administration of former US President Barack Obama. But American sources report that among them there is an awareness that the world has changed in recent years and that there are some failures in the policies of the Obama administration, which President Obama himself admitted in an interview with Fox News before leaving. the White House when it said that the post-Muammar Gaddafi era in Libya was badly planned.

The Libyan, Syrian and Palestinian files are all awaiting the moves of the new president. But the most important of course will be the Iranian file and the Iranian expansion into Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. The Democrats have made it clear that they want to strike a deal with Iran, but the question is what this deal will look like and how it will affect the Arab world. The answer depends on the policies that will be followed in the Arab countries that are suffering from Iranian interference. For example, Biden took over the Iraqi file during the Obama presidency and played a pivotal role in the United States’ decision to support Nuri al-Maliki to assume the post of prime minister after the 2010 election. Although Iyad Allawi won a greater number of votes in Parliament. That historic decision changed the course of Iraq. Biden was also against intervention in Syria; As the developments in it after 2011 were seen as a “sectarian struggle” and not a popular revolution. Biden made it clear during brief speeches during the election campaign that he was aware of the extent of the current Iranian expansion, but he was cautious and did not clarify how he would deal with this dossier and whether he had learned any lessons from the past era.

This explanation will depend on two factors: The first is Biden’s team, who will lead foreign relations, and the second is how influential Arab capitals treat the new administration. As for the former, there are capable figures on Biden’s team, including Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser when he was vice president, and that he and William Burns, then US deputy secretary of state, were the first to engage in secret negotiations with the Iranians. And Silivan believes it is necessary to reach an agreement with the Iranians on their nuclear program, and this was at the heart of his work. But he also believes it is necessary to work on a parallel path to reduce Iranian interference in the region. In the event that Sullivan and Burns are stronger in the new administration, there will be opportunities for workable solutions.

I met many of these officials during my work in Washington as director of the “Middle East” office during the early period of the Obama administration. I had the opportunity to learn more about Jake Sullivan’s thinking during my enrollment at Yale University, where he was studying “American Politics and International Law”. During those lectures, he demonstrated his accurate knowledge of international law and the importance of international norms and treaties, but he also showed awareness of the gaps in some American policies, particularly some that his country has followed this century. This knowledge and experience will be important during the next period of his political career, which is expected to be crowned by a senior position in the Biden administration. There are other figures among the Democratic elites who are less enthusiastic about reaching a broad agreement that includes Iranian behavior in the region, such as Anthony Blancon, the former US Deputy Secretary of State, and whether he will take a stance that affects US politics. in the region, Iran will be more comfortable.

All these problems can be seen by politicians and analysts in the Arab world, despite their little influence on them. But the issue they can influence is to present concrete and strategic proposals to the new administration. Biden will seek quick fixes and will want to appear more effective than his predecessor at finding concrete solutions. Nothing in the region is easy; This makes it difficult to find quick fixes for the Middle East, but proposing a road map or charting paths for dialogue and negotiation will have a positive impact and change could benefit all parties.