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While the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in red, losing about 15% of its value in the last week, two econometric models predict a very bright future or particularly difficult times.
Professor of Economics at Columbia University Panos Mourdoukoutas and one of his students are turning to econometric models to predict the world's largest cryptocurrency price in 2020. The two models used have two potentially opposite outcomes.
The Bulls
According to Adam Haye's model, Bitcoin 0 0 will reach a price of $ 55,060.60 by the end of 2020. The bullish forecast is based on the provision of cryptocurrency. Mining is expected to grow at a slower pace as we approach the 21 million cap. Even if it is not a match for John McAfee's famous Bitcoin prediction that reaches $ 500,000 by 2020, this is still a huge increase from which the currency is trading at the moment.
Now there are less than 4 million bitcoins left. Moreover, unless there are unexpected and abnormal changes in the hash rate, the reward for successful BTC miners will drop from 12.5 to 6.25 per block in 2020.
The scarcity of the world's leading digital currency is making it even more attractive, it is on what this econometric model is based.
The Bears
Bearish predictions, however, are also on the table. According to the work of Spencer Wheatley, which is largely based on Metcalfe's law. The professor of Zurich sees the total market capitalization of Bitcoin – currently over $ 120 billion, with a contraction of $ 41 billion
The authors of the document also predict a serious volatility in the price of the first and most important cryptocurrency:
Looking ahead, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overestimation of the bitcoin price, suggesting many months of side price bitcoin price volatility.
While volatility is often referred to as one of Bitcoin's main weaknesses, Arthur Hayes, CEO and co-founder of the BitMex cryptocurrency exchange, says that in reality it is a quality that is so necessary: [19659014] You want the highest possible volatility to have more chance that Bitcoin goes to $ 50,000, $ 100,000, $ 1,000,000, whatever the high number.
In any case, as Bitcoin still marks another day in red, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has worked with Starbucks and Microsoft to create a digital asset platform dubbed as Bakkt. According to the well-known cryptocurrency commentator and founder of the investment company BKCM LLC, Brian Kelly, this will make the launch of a "much simpler" Bitcoin ETF and will represent the "biggest news of the year for Bitcoin".
see Bitcoin in 2020? Do not hesitate to let us know in the comments below!
Images courtesy of Shutterstock; Bitcoinist Archives.
