Bear Market Musings (2018 Q4) – Live Coin Watch


Bear markets are a fantastic time for developers like me, who focus on building the industry's future. They are also a good time to reflect once the madness and the high euphorias of an irrational bull market have passed.

T these are just some of my opinions and thoughts that I have had in recent weeks. I'm certainly not your financial advisor and I could be wrong about many of these.

We are trying to improve the content here on the Live Coin Watch news, starting with some more thoughtful pieces on the industry as

Do your research and shape your opinions 🙂 [19659005] We'll probably see another version of Altcoin Mini-Bull Run

I've noticed that many investors are moving from altcoin positions in Bitcoin during this bear run. At some point, many of these tokens will be oversold.

Smart money could start moving again in altcoins and the mini cycle repeats itself.

Instead of following a pure hype, what is important is now distinguishing which projects are actually hitting technological milestones against the expense of their war chests on developer lambos matching and meaningless conferences in 5-star hotels stars.

This requires a deep excavation. Spend some time talking to team members about projects that interest you. The dartboard theory of choosing a coin for iped and waiting for the moon will probably no longer work.

Whales will continue to manipulate the public

The market behaves irrationally because the volumes of cryptocurrency and liquidity are currently miniscule. Compare the volumes reported with trade on any mature market such as pig futures and cryptocurrency like a child's.

In addition, many Cryptovalute investors are rather lazy and emotionally motivated. The whales have used the main news as a catalyst to move the markets in the direction they want. The Pleba therefore wrongly directly attributes the market trends to those news.

Example: Recently, Bitcoin's ETF was denied "caused" a mini accident. Around the same time, Bakkt released a product that is probably more important for the fundamental value and adoption of cryptocurrency and the markets have not come back.

Cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to maintain spoofing volume

We have a theoretical gambling problem in the industry where exchanges are incentivized to report a higher volume to monitoring websites.


The highest volume reported indicates that their exchanges appear higher up in the lists. This means more free organic traffic for bad actors.

In addition, the ACTUAL volume in criptovaluta could be 40-50% lower than the volume reported by the exchanges.

We are working to try to correlate traffic counts to identify outliers, but it is fighting an uphill battle when we are completely dependent on exchange API data. Currently, I believe it is worthwhile to ignore the actual volume of the total market during the analysis. Instead, I would focus on its day-to-day changes when you're researching.

Coins with <10,000 holders are dangerous

I think the number of cardholders is a metric too often ignored by the community of cryptocurrencies as a fundamental driver of real value. The most popular ERC-20 token, OmiseGo (OMG), has only about 650,000 holders according to etherscan.

Let's compare a previous project like OmiseGo to Quarkchain which has only 7,500 owners

Omise Go Market Cap: ~ $ 445,000,000
Quarkchain Market Cap: ~ $ 28,000,000

None of these tokens still has a case of actual use as far as I know. The only difference compared to their development proposals is time on the market and the hype / general exposure directly related to the number of holders

Without economic models innovative to be distributed fairly token, new projects are at a huge disadvantage when it comes to Metcalfe's law. Ico and the new projects launched after the first quarter of 2018 have missed the advertising advertising train and an opportunity to increase their network value in an organic way. Now they are playing catch up.

In addition, the trend in the token sales sector available exclusively to institutional investors decreases the initial number of holders. ICOs with 20,000 retail participants investing 1-2 ETHs are now a thing of the past.

Live Coin Watch will add the number of token holders together with a proprietary metric we have created a report similar to that of NVT in the coming weeks.

So What Now?

If you want to succeed in these markets, I think it's time to spend a few hours of hard work. The rich was fast cryptocurrency has passed, but the future is bright.

Fundamentals and technology in the industry are improving on a daily basis. Cryptocurrency has already become mainstream in terms of general awareness. The adoption is hopefully the next step.

We will continue to create innovative products at Live Coin Watch and support the industry. Comment below if you have any ideas or if you think that everything I said was a real trash. Prepare to support it with logic and facts 🙂


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