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An apocalyptic climate change prediction that half the world’s beaches will vanish by the end of the 21st century has been swept away by new research.
The findings say that global warming will not spell the end of the world’s beaches, which are economically and ecologically vital to coastal communities.
The latest research states that it is possible for beaches to survive climate change by migrating to land.
Beaches that have a solid barrier behind them, however, such as Blackpool and Bournemouth, are still at risk as this prevents the beach from naturally retreating.
But those with “room to move”, such as Slapton Sands in Devon, will likely survive.
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Slapton Sands in Devon (pictured) borders the village of Torcross and experts say this is an example of a beach that has room to move around and thus survive global warming
Researchers led by the universities of Plymouth and Sydney reassessed the previous study published in March 2020 in the journal Nature Climate Change.
At the time, researchers claimed that around 50% of the world’s sandy beaches would be at risk of severe erosion if greenhouse gas emissions continued = at their current rate.
Areas at risk, he said, include Surfers’ Paradise in Queensland, St Tropez, Honolulu, Copacabana, Costa del Sol and Weymouth.
But a fierce rebuttal published today in the same magazine claims that the key to determining whether a beach is destroyed by global warming rests on its ability to retreat.
It involved a complete review of the data, methods and conclusions from the previous study and found it to be flawed.
The researchers used global data and numerical methods and say it is impossible to make the far-reaching predictions of the previous study.
Co-author Professor Gerd Masselink of the University of Plymouth Coastal Processes Research Group said the beaches of Blackpool (pictured) and Bournemouth could be lost as they are sandwiched between the water and a wall built as a defense. of the sea
The belief is that if the beaches have room to move they will retain their overall shape and form, but in a more landward position.
Lead author Professor Andrew Cooper of the University of Ulster said, “As sea levels rise, the coast retreat must and will happen, but the beaches will survive.”
The beaches that will undergo this change include those that are backed by low coastal plains, shallow lagoons, salt flats and dunes.
The results apply globally, including the United States and Australia in Mexico, Argentina, India and Brazil.
Reef islands such as the Maldives may survive rising sea levels
Predictions that sea level rise caused by global warming will see the world’s islands submerged by rising currents may not come true, a new study suggests.
He claims that reef islands, such as the Maldives, could naturally adapt to survive rising water levels.
Previous research has said that rising sea levels will “drown” islands, with particularly sensitive coral reefs, within decades.
However, an international team of scientists, led by the University of Plymouth, say this may not be a foregone conclusion.
New research says reef islands, such as the Maldives (pictured), may naturally adapt to survive rising water levels
Slapton Sands in Devon and Rivoli Bay in Australia are examples of such beaches that will adapt and survive, the researchers say.
However, beaches that are sandwiched between the water and a wall built as a defense from the sea will not be able to retreat, putting them at greater risk of extinction.
‘The biggest threat to the continued existence of beaches is coastal defense structures that limit their ability to migrate,’ explains Professor Cooper.
This includes some of Britain’s best-loved beach resorts.
Co-author Professor Gerd Masselink of the University of Plymouth Coastal Process Research Group said Blackpool and Bournemouth beaches could be lost.
“I would say that many famous beaches will disappear,” he said.
‘For example, Blackpool has a dike behind it that prevents the beach from migrating as the sea level rises.
‘Bournemouth will be in trouble because it is backed by cliffs. But beaches with room for accommodation will simply move back and forth, as claimed in the document.
Earlier this year, he conducted a study that found that island drowning is not inevitable with rising sea levels.
“In the face of climate change and rising sea levels, coral reef islands are among the most vulnerable coastal environments on the planet,” he said in June.
‘Previous research on the future habitability of these islands generally considers them inert structures unable to adapt to rising sea levels.’
He said previous studies therefore predict a huge risk of the island being lost to coastal flooding.
As a result, much of the research aimed at preventing this has been devoted to building coastal defenses or removing inhabitants from island communities.
However, Professor Masselink says little attention has been paid to the natural hardiness and adaptability of these islands.
“These reef islands have developed over hundreds or thousands of years due to the energetic conditions of the waves that remove material from the reef structure and deposit the material towards the back of the reef platforms, thus creating islands.
“The height of their surface is actually determined by the conditions of the most energetic waves, so overloading, flooding and flooding of the island are necessary, although inconvenient and sometimes dangerous, processes for the maintenance of the island.”
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