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Last month, an astronomer from the University of Hawaii’s Institute of Astronomy (IfA) revealed that the 370-meter-wide asteroid could still hit Earth. Scientists initially ruled out the 2068 collision, but research has shown there’s a slim chance – about one in 530,000 – that the asteroid Apophis could hit Earth. The new study was announced following the detection of a small Yarkovsky acceleration on the surface of the asteroid.
The Yarkovsky effect occurs when an asteroid or celestial body changes its orbit due to a small heat push, either by itself expelling gases, or by gravitational pull and pushed by celestial bodies, including the Sun and Earth. .
In this case, scientists discovered a small thermal reaction that could slightly alter Apophis’ course and send it to Earth.
A statement from the University of Hawaii states: “All asteroids need to reactivate the energy they absorb from sunlight as heat to maintain thermal balance, a process that slightly changes the asteroid’s orbit.
“Prior to the detection of Yarkovsky’s acceleration on Apophis, astronomers had concluded that a potential impact with the Earth in 2068 was impossible.
“The detection of this effect acting on Apophis means that the 2068 impact scenario is still a possibility.
“Further observations are underway to refine the magnitude of the Yarkovksy effect and how it affects Apophis’ orbit.
“Astronomers will know well before 2068 if there is any possibility of impact.”
However, Apophis will have a close flyby of Earth in 2029, and scientists are planning to use his visit to determine if space rock is likely to strike in 2068.
READ MORE: Asteroid News: “Near Earth” asteroid is ready to pass beyond our planet
“Time is of the essence as we have less than a decade to plan ground-based and possible in situ missions whose measurements can provide unprecedented detailed knowledge of the physical nature of Apophis as a prototype (poster child) example of potentially dangerous asteroids.”
Apophis is named after the ancient Egyptian god of evil, darkness and destruction. It is larger than London’s Shard and the impact could have major consequences.
If the 27 billion-kilogram asteroid were to hit Earth, scientists calculate it would leave a crater more than a mile wide and 518 meters deep.
More worryingly, however, the impact would be equivalent to 880 million tons of TNT being detonated, 65,000 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
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