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Stellar (XLM) is currently down 76% from the record height of 3 January. The market capitalization XLM is the sixth largest among the coins tracked by bravenewcoin.com, at $ 4.1 billion, with a volume traded on the stock market for $ 57 million in the last 24 hours.
XLM was created in 2014 by founders Jed McCaleb and Joyce Kim. The blockchain uses the consent mechanism of the Federated Byzantine Agreement (FBA), launched by Ripple. The mechanism was adapted to the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) of David Mazières after the chain was unable to maintain a reliable consensus. The XLM network currently has 203 public nodes.
The FBA, similar to the solutions relating to the problem of the Byzantine generals, reaches a consensus based on the agreement of a large number of individuals or validators. Anyone can be a validator, so the user must decide which validators to trust. Ideally, each trust group or quorum slice has overlapping transactions with other groups and therefore can collectively reach consensus. For SCP, the quorum intersection ensures that each quorum slice is always connected by a node. There are no incentives or prizes for nodes other than participation in the network and consent.
100 billion XLM were created by the Genesis block in 2014, and there is a fixed annual inflation rate of 1%. According to the Stellar Dashboard, there are currently 104.24 billion XLMs, 8.14 billion XLMs have been distributed as aircraft or to promote partnerships and user growth. Of the current total supply, 18.77 billion XLM tokens are not held by the Stellar Development Foundation.
Coins created to meet annual inflation are distributed through an inflation pool. The XLM network uses a default transaction fee of 0.00001 lumens to prevent spam or denial of service attacks. Transaction fees are collected and placed in the inflation pool.
Each account in the inflation pool selects another account as the inflation target each week. You need an account to get at least 0.05% of the votes to collect the inflation pool prize. The vote is weighted according to the number of lumens that the voting account holds. The first 100 addresses currently hold 95% of all tokens.
The low number of transactions made the platform attractive for remittances. The project team announced partnerships with Tempo, ICO as Smartlands and Mobius, Stellar DEX, Hyperledger and a new stable currency called Stronghold.
Unlike most other cryptocurrencies and resources, the daily active addresses on the XLM network have recently reached a record level. According to Metcalfe's law, the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. An increase in active policies, which can be used as an adoption measure, should be seen as a main indicator of bullish price action.
Daily transaction volume (red filling) continued in a growing trend since January 2017, reaching its all-time high in January 2018. In recent months the value Transactions (NVT) of the 30-day Kalichkin network (red line) decreased. The NVT report can be used to evaluate the relative utility of the network over time, although NVT is difficult to compare between currencies that use different types of transactions. A declining NVT should be considered a bullish price indicator because it means increasing economic activity in the chain
The Stellar project on GitHub had a combination of 619 commits over the past year and the network will migrate to Stellar Core 10.0.0 over the next 4-6 weeks. Most coins use the GitHub developer community, where files are saved in folders called "repository" or "repos" and changes to these files are recorded with "commit". Although commits represent quantity and not necessarily quality, a higher number of commits
The volume of trades exchanged during the last 24 hours was mainly driven by Bitcoin pairs (BTC), Tether (USDT). Korean Won (KRW) also holds a significant share of volume. Most exchanges took place on Binance, Poloniex, OKEx and Kraken. Coinbase is potentially adding XLM to their platform in the near future. The XLM has also recently obtained certification for Islamic finance according to the Sharia, paving the way for newcomers to the Middle East and Asia.
Technical Analysis
XLM has been trading in narrower and narrower range since January, without making the lows lower as most of its counterparts. As the trading range decreases, it is important to make a clear decision about the potential direction of the new trend. A bias in the direction of the trend or the beginning of a new trend can be determined using graphical schemes, exponential moving averages (EMA) and Ichimoku Cloud. Further basic information on the technical indicators discussed below is available here.
In the two-day chart, the price structure has formed a pattern of bullish continuation of several months, known as a banner, with a descending volume profile. This model is formed when the price makes a series of higher lows and higher lows. All triangle-shaped patterns break when at least two-thirds are completed, as is currently the case. The model brings a measured move and an extension of 1.68 fib to US $ 1, which would push the currency to almost all highs. Even the 50 / 200EMA have become flat and almost completely converging, indicating a reload of momentum for the next move.
Turning to the Ichimoku cloud, four metrics are used to determine if there is a trend; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross and the Lagging Span. The best voice always occurs when most signals go from bearish to bullish or vice versa.
The status of the current cloud metrics in the daily time frame with single settings (10/30/60/30) for faster signals are bearish; the price is lower than the Cloud, the Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is bearish and the Lagging Span is in the Cloud and below the price. A traditional long entry will not trigger until the price is higher than the Cloud. If the bullish momentum exists, on September 6th the price will pass through the Kumo curve, an area where the resistance to the cloud is negligible. [1965902] 
The state of cloud metrics in the daily newspaper and the time interval with doubled settings (20/60/120/30) for more precise signals are also downward; the price is below the Cloud, the Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is bearish and the Lagging Span is under the Cloud and below the price. Again, a traditional long entry will not trigger until the price will be higher than the Cloud. Both the Kijun of US $ 0.265 and Kumo of US $ 0.32 represent strong levels of resistance until a Kumo breakout occurs.
On the XLM / BTC pair, there is also a bullish multi-month pennant with a descending volume profile (not shown). This model produces a measured move and an extension of 1.68 fib of 8000-8600 sat, respectively, and is set to be moved by October 23 at the latest. A large increase in volume will probably be the decisive factor for a break in support or resistance.
Conclusion
Both the growth of users and the increase in economic activity suggest a trend of new entrants using stellar blockchain. This is in stark contrast to most other coins on the market. XLM also appears at the tip of a Coinbase list, and is working closely with numerous prominent partners. Unfortunately, the large concentration of coins in a limited number of portfolios makes it difficult to ascertain how and when the offer will be distributed in the market, although the Stellar mandate gives a direction on how and when such coins will be distributed.
Technicians suggest a bullish pause awaiting both Stellar / USD and Stellar / BTC pairs. The most aggressive voice would present itself at the bottom of the interval, to support, with the most conservative entry after the interval resistance was interrupted. If the interval is broken, look at the Cloud indication of a new trend.
