Aluminum prices approaching 17,000 yuan, the high profits of electrolytic aluminum should continue

Summary

[Il prezzo dell’alluminio si avvicina a 17.000 yuan e si prevede che gli alti profitti dell’alluminio elettrolitico continueranno]Although it is the traditional low season, after the skyrocketing market in November, the current rise in aluminum metallic prices continues today. On December 2, 2101, the leading aluminum contract on the domestic futures market became popular again, hitting a high of 16,925 yuan / ton during the session, approaching the key point of 17,000 yuan / ton. (Securities Times)

Although it is the traditional low season, after the November market surge, aluminum futurespriceThe rise continues today.

On December 2, domestic futuresmarketAluminumMain strengthContract 2101 was red again, hitting a high of 16,925 yuan / ton in the intraday market, approaching the key point of 17,000 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, some areas of aluminumProductThe quotation reached 17,000 yuan / ton. According to business agency monitoring data, the latest aluminum price on December 1 was 16,996.67 yuan / ton, which is up 5.26% over the past 5 days, by 6.65 % in 10 days, 10.58% in 20 days, 14.51% in 30 days and 15.65% in 60 days.

High aluminum prices, sought-after aluminum companies

Baichuan Yingfu’s monitoring data also showed that aluminum prices have consistently set the highest prices in recent years. On November 27, the price of aluminum ingots in the Yangtze River was 16,330 yuan / ton and the price of aluminum ingots in Nanchu was 16,450 yuan / ton.

While current prices have risen sharply, the fundamentals of aluminum companies have received good expectations and the A-share aluminum sector has gained popularity in the secondary market.

Statistics show that in the past 60 days,Shenhuo sharesAn increase of 63.4%,YunluUp to 55.95%,China AluminumThe increase also reached 31.55%bottomAfter the rebound, the above stock prices essentially doubled.

“As of November 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 16,786.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.09% over the average market price of 14,696.67 yuan / ton of 1 November compared to the market of 14,553.33 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year. Average price, an increase of 15.35%, compared to the average market price of 11,230 yuan / ton on March 24 during the year, an increase of 49.39%. “AnalystYe Jianjun believes that the price of aluminum ingots in November reached a new high this year.profitableThe factors are interrelated, on the one hand driven by macro factors, on the other hand supply and demand are better.

In November, the “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement” (RCEP) was signed to overlap the domestic economy to maintain higher than expected growth, making our country the only country with positive growth in the main economy. the success of overseas vaccines compensates for the impact of the current worsening of the foreign epidemic and the good medium-term expectations are strengthened to relaunch abroadindustryAsk for expectations. In terms of policy, the expectation of a large-scale international stimulus policy is still in place, igniting the enthusiasm of funds to do more non-ferrous sectors.

At the same time, economic data released on November 30 showed that China’s official NovemberproductionSMEsIt rose to 52.1 (previous value of 51.4), a new high since October 2017, and has remained in the expansion range for 9 consecutive months.enterpriseIn terms of scale, SMEs of large, medium and small enterprises were respectively 53, 52 and 50.1, 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points higher than last month, while the PMI of small business is back above the dry line.In terms of sub-indices, the production index rose to 54.7 (previously 53.9) and the new orders index registered 53.9, an increase of 1, 1 percentage points compared to the previous month.ExportThe orders index recorded 51.5 (previous value of 51), bouncing for 7 consecutive months, setting a new high from 2018.

November Business ClubGoodsThe supply and demand index (BCI) was 0.63, an average increase of 6.67%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in the month was expanding from the previous month and the upward economic trend was evident. It is reported that this is the 7 consecutive months of expansion since BCI went from negative to positive in May.

Highly electrolytic aluminumprofitOr it will continue

Although the current spot price of aluminum has not reached the maximum point set in 2017, due to the current upstreamPrice of raw materialsOverall, the profitability of electrolytic aluminum manufacturing companies has reached an all-time high.Net profitIt has exceeded 4000 yuan.

After entering in December, with the subsequent implementation of environmental protection production restrictions in the heating season in the northern regions and the approaching Spring Festival holidays, downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum is contracting. Is the high profitability of businesses expected to continue?

“At the moment, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has dropped below 600,000 tons. Domestic downstream demand is strong and supply and demand are good. On the other hand, the domestic manufacturing industryinvestmentSteadily increasing, with the impact of the news on vaccine progress, the relatively lagging overseas market is expected to be temporarily bullish. “Ye Jianjun believes that risk appetite for market funds increased in November and other domestic markets, such as the stock market and futures markets, saw a more significant one-sided increase. The link between futures and the current market will increase. aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to improve mainly in the near future and attention should be paid thereafter. Try to avoidlongThe liquidation of profits and the sudden surge in imports had an impact on domestic aluminum prices.

Baichuan Yingfu’s analysis also stated that although the current price of aluminum is at a high level, the closely related industry of aluminum plate, strip and sheet processing is affected and cannot be ignored. of aluminum ingots affected some downstream consumption and the number of new orders dropped dramatically.base priceExcessively high and miserable, some downstream companies have adopted a curtailment or even temporarily stopped miningstrategyAt the moment, corporate orders are mostly pre-orders, most of which are just necessary purchases. In addition, winter has arrived and the heating season also has some binding force for aluminum plate, strip and foil companies. Most companies in Henan, Shandong and Shanxi have reduced production to varying degrees. In terms of production, individual companies have even cut almost half from last month. Under the double blow, the sales volume of the aluminum plate, strip and foil industry decreased. However, the industry as a whole is still relatively active and there is no noticeable off-season effect. The market is expected to maintain the status quo for some time.

However, the recent analysis from Everbright Futures believes that the social inventory of aluminum ingots does not represent the entire inventory. It’s a sample of different distribution centers and doesn’t represent everyone. Secondly, the increase or decrease in the inventory of the aluminum ingot factory is also part of the inventory, which is not included in the statistics. Finally, the proportion of aluminum ingots converted to molten aluminum, i.e. converted to deep downstream processing, has increasedProductThe inventory will also lead to insufficient arrival of aluminum ingots and destocking.

Under the influence of slack liquidity and inflation expectations, the bearish sentiment in non-ferrous metals has further weakened this year. Since the start of the dispute, Shanghai Aluminum has already increased by 2,000 yuan / ton. From both an absolute price and a profit standpoint, it will attract a large amount of hedging. Layout with short investors in the month of the Spring Festival, the pressure will be significantly higher than the same period last year, which will limit the room for further hikes and there could be a watershed in prices in December.

(Source: Securities Times)

(Responsible publisher: DF520)