A cold surveillance and alarm system in Quebec

A team from the Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS) and the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), led by Professor Fateh Chebana, has recently developed a surveillance and warning system against cold for cold waves the world. Their findings were published in November 2020 in the journal Total environmental science.

“Cold waves, particularly severe in Quebec, can affect everyone, but especially people with chronic diseases. The data provided by the INSPQ indicates an increase in hospitalizations and mortality with cold. similar to what we developed for heatwaves in 2010 seemed essential to us, “says Professor Chebana, who led the study.

Based on past data, the researchers were able to determine two temperature thresholds that would trigger an alarm to alert healthcare workers. Depending on the region, the temperature thresholds for a two-day cold spell that causes an alarm and related to the excess mortality observed in the population vary between -15 ° C and -23 ° C during the day, and between – 20 ° C and – 29 ° C at night. The thresholds that cause an alarm and related to an excess of hospitalization in the population vary between -13 ° C and -23 ° C during the day, and between -17 ° C and -30 ° C at night.

Once the system is up and running, it will use Environment Canada’s predictions and take into account the reliability of these predictions. The alert system also considers the effect of delays between exposure and observed health impacts. “Just because it was cold today doesn’t mean people die or go to hospital on the same day. It takes several days to see the impact, longer than in high temperatures,” he says.

A promising warning system

For now, these thresholds are the same throughout the winter period. The team plans to improve the tool by adjusting the thresholds by month. ‘A temperature of -15 ° C in December will not have the same effect on health as February because the body has not yet adapted,’ says Professor Chebana.

The alert system currently considers the general population, but may specifically consider high-risk groups such as the elderly or those with respiratory problems. Researchers are also evaluating a specific feature applicable to tourism or the education sector, for example during school closures.

Currently managed by the INSPQ, the model will be integrated into its Surveillance and Prevention of the Health Impacts of Extreme Weather Events (SUPREME), a source of information on the impacts of extreme weather events on health.

“Excessive mortality or hospitalizations caused by cold waves are not as well known as heat waves, although their impact is high during the winter. This work, in collaboration with INRS hydrometeorological data modeling experts , will allow public health stakeholders to better monitor cold waves and implement appropriate interventions to prevent avoidable deaths or hospitalizations. ”

Provided by the National Institute for Scientific Research – INRS