A bitcoin that ends is two years: here's what will happen at the price of the bitcoin

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In about two years (su & nbsp;May 27, 2020, unless wild swings & nbsp;in the hashrate mining changes something) the coin reward for the extraction of new Bitcoin blocks will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins to 6.25 Bitcoins – and people are already thinking about what they could do at the Bitcoin price. & nbsp;

Much has changed for Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain from the last halving of Bitcoin (something that the community calls a halvening), which happened on July 9th 2016, and every time nobody happens it is completely sure of the Bitcoin price, or the economy that has built around it, will react.

A Bitcoin that has halved – there have been two since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 – is a fixed event and will occur after every 210,000 blocks have been extracted, or confirmed, by the system.

About 12 months after the first Bitcoin halving event in November 2012, the price of Bitcoin reached what was then the historic high of $ 1,000.

2016 doubled last year's bull race, which peaked in December 2017 with the price of Bitcoin reaching $ 19,000 to dazzle. & Nbsp;

He has since come back abruptly – but the same happened after 2012 and the subsequent boom, with the price of Bitcoin falling to $ 200 per currency, before taking the lead until 2016.

The price of Bitcoin has increased after both the first two eventsCoinDesk

While the price of Bitcoin rose a bit before both subsequent halving, the price continued to rise over the next 12 months.

Many Bitcoin and financial experts believe that this is similar to the way traditional market prices change in interest rates or changes in the supply of raw materials.

"Previous downtime has shown a negligible impact on the price of Bitcoin, because – as a cut in the highly anticipated interest rate – everyone already knows it will happen sooner," said Glen Goodman, Bitcoin analyst and author of the next book The Crypto Trader.

If the market knows that the offer should be reduced at a given time, and based on what will be reduced, it will begin to apply this price reduction gradually, avoiding sharp peaks and falls.

"Historically, the cut had a very immediate immediate impact, even if the price usually rose later," said Chris Wilmer, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh and a co-author of Bitcoin for the confused.

The price increase makes sense as big Bitcoin buyers have to buy into the market or pass them through the mining industry, and after a halving event forces more people to buy in the market.

"Cryptocurrency markets are often very event driven, and as we approach the next halving, the price of bitcoin will be boosted by those who anticipate the next reduction in the new offer," said Garrick Hileman, head of research for Blockchain & nbsp; and co-founder of & nbsp; Mosaic. "In the months that preceded the last two halves we have seen that the price of bitcoin tends constantly towards the top, and therefore increases after the halving of the reward."

There are more factors at play, however …

Thorsten Koeppl, professor of economics at Queen's University in Canada, said: "It seems to us that any cryptocurrency should economically do the opposite of what Bitcoin is doing.

"Bitcoin's value is partly driven by its potential as a payment instrument and, before the rates rose along with the price, there were & nbsp; people who use Bitcoin for international transfers.This became & nbsp; more expensive to do now, but the price is still supported. "

The increase in tariffs over the last two years – together with the increase in the price of Bitcoin – is the direct result of a greater number of people using the Bitcoin network.

In December, however, there were about 400,000 transactions a day this is now back to around 200,000 transactions a dayand expenses are reduced with it.

As Bitcoin's reward for the extraction of new blocks on the blockchain falls, the miners will increasingly rely on & nbsp; commissions, which receive as an incentive for & nbsp; confirm Bitcoin transactions.

Miners use the miner commissions attached to the transactions to decide which ones to confirm, choosing the larger ones first. In the end, once all the possible 21 million Bitcoins are extracted, the miners will rely entirely on these taxes for their income.

Bitcoins and miners

The first ones affected by a bitcoin that is shrinking are the miners, with & nbsp; new Bitcoin coming soon & nbsp; at the expense of computer and electricity processing time.

In recent years, the cost of mining has increased significantly, although both the large Bitcoin mining consortiums and the smaller miners are still able to make money despite some claims Bitcoin mining globally now uses more electricity than all of Ireland.

But for miners, a reduction in hours means a sharp drop in revenue.

In view of the second crash of 2016, the price of Bitcoin at that time meant that a block of mine had led to a new Bitcoin worth about $ 16,000. It would have fallen to $ 8,000 directly after the halvening phase. & Nbsp;

However, it is possible for the network to balance itself. With the increase in extraction difficulties, fewer miners will be able to continue.

"If the potential benefits from mining are lower due to the slowdown, this could deter many people from the extraction of Bitcoin," according to Goodman.

But the beauty of the Bitcoin protocol means that if the hashing power leaves the network, the difficulty of extracting a new block will be automatically reduced. So it will take less hashing power and less electricity to extract every new Bitcoin.

Hileman added: "I do not foresee a significant change in the total rate of mined hash due to halving, at least not in the short term." Miners have historically shown a willingness to maintain or increase computing power by halving events, as they expect that future bitcoin price increases will offset the premium reduction. "

According to Charles Hayter, managing director of cryptocurrency data analysis company Crypto Compare, there it will be a "sweep away the profitability of the old miners", although Hayter suggested& nbsp; improvements in chip technology will bring better ratings of power, efficiency and price.

In the meantime, if the price of Bitcoin rises enough – or is pushed higher by the miners who now have to be better compensated by fewer coins per block – there will be more miners than before.

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In about two years (May 27, 2020, unless wild oscillations in the hashrate mining changes something) the coin reward for the extraction of new Bitcoin blocks will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins to 6.25 Bitcoins – and people are already thinking about what they could do at the Bitcoin price.

Much has changed for Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain from the last halving of Bitcoin (something that the community calls a halvening), which happened on July 9th 2016, and every time nobody happens it is completely sure of the Bitcoin price, or the economy that has built around it, will react.

A Bitcoin that has halved – there have been two since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 – is a fixed event and will occur after every 210,000 blocks have been extracted, or confirmed, by the system.

About 12 months after the first Bitcoin halving event in November 2012, the price of Bitcoin reached what was then the historic high of $ 1,000.

2016 has halved last year's bull run which peaked in December 2017 with the price of Bitcoin reaching $ 19,000 to be mouth watering.

He has since come back abruptly – but the same happened after 2012 and the subsequent boom, with the price of Bitcoin falling by up to $ 200 per currency before taking the lead up to 2016.

The price of Bitcoin has increased after both the first two eventsCoinDesk

While the price of Bitcoin rose a bit before both subsequent halving, the price continued to rise over the next 12 months.

Many Bitcoin and financial experts believe that this is similar to the way traditional market prices change in interest rates or changes in the supply of raw materials.

"Previous revivals have shown a negligible impact on the price of Bitcoin, because – as a cut in the highly anticipated interest rate – everyone already knows it will happen early," said Glen Goodman, Bitcoin analyst and author of the upcoming book The Crypto Trader.

If the market knows that the offer should be reduced at a given time, and based on what will be reduced, it will begin to apply this price reduction gradually, avoiding sharp peaks and falls.

"Historically, the cut has had a very small immediate impact, even if the price has usually increased after," said Chris Wilmer, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh and a co-author of Bitcoin for the confused.

The price increase makes sense as big Bitcoin buyers have to buy into the market or pass them through the mining industry, and after a halving event forces more people to buy in the market.

"Cryptocurrency markets are often very event-driven, and as we approach the next halving, the price of bitcoin will receive a boost from those anticipating the next drop in supplies," said Garrick Hileman, head of Blockchain's research. and co-founder of Mosaic. "In the months leading up to the last two halves, we have seen that the price of bitcoin tends constantly towards the top, and therefore the power increases after the halving of the reward".

There are more factors at play, however …

Thorsten Koeppl, professor of economics at Queen's University in Canada, said: "It seems that any cryptocurrency should economically do the opposite of what Bitcoin is doing.

"Bitcoin's value is partly determined by its potential as a payment instrument, and before the rates increased along with the price, there were people using Bitcoin for international transfers, which has become more expensive to do now. supported. "

The increase in tariffs over the last two years – together with the increase in the price of Bitcoin – is the direct result of a greater number of people using the Bitcoin network.

In December, there were about 400,000 transactions a day, although this has now returned to around 200,000 transactions a day, and rates have been reduced.

While Bitcoin's reward for the extraction of new blocks on the blockchain falls, the miners will increasingly rely on commissions, which they get as an incentive to confirm transactions with Bitcoin.

Miners use the miner commissions attached to the transactions to decide which ones to confirm, choosing the larger ones first. In the end, once all the possible 21 million Bitcoins are extracted, the miners will rely entirely on these taxes for their income.

Bitcoins and miners

The first ones hit by a bitcoin that has halved are the miners, with the new Bitcoin going to the detriment of computer and electricity processing time.

In recent years, the cost of mining has increased significantly, although both the large Bitcoin mining consortiums and the smaller miners are still able to gain despite some claims that the extraction of Bitcoin worldwide is using more electricity than all of Ireland.

But for miners, a reduction in hours means a sharp drop in revenue.

In view of the second crash of 2016, the price of Bitcoin at that time meant that a block of mine had led to a new Bitcoin worth about $ 16,000. It would have fallen to $ 8,000 directly after the suspension.

However, it is possible for the network to balance itself. With the increase in extraction difficulties, fewer miners will be able to continue.

"If the potential benefits from mining activities are lower due to the slowdown, this could deter many people from the extraction of Bitcoin," according to Goodman.

But the beauty of the Bitcoin protocol means that if the hashing power leaves the network, the difficulty of extracting a new block will be automatically reduced. So it will take less hashing power and less electricity to extract every new Bitcoin.

Hileman added: "I do not foresee a significant change in the total rate of mined hash due to halving, at least not in the short term. Miners have historically demonstrated a willingness to maintain or increase computing power by halving events because they expect future bitcoin price increases to offset the reduced premium reduction. "

According to Charles Hayter, managing director of cryptocurrency data analysis company Crypto Compare, there there will be a "cancellation of the profitability of the old miners", although Hayter suggested improvements in chip technology will bring better ratings of power, efficiency and price.

In the meantime, if the price of Bitcoin rises sufficiently – or is pushed higher by the miners who now have to be better compensated by fewer coins per block – there will be many miners as before.

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