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Washington – US President Donald Trump made some of his most important election promises in 2016 in the area of foreign policy, such as a commitment to reassess US relations with NATO, to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran and to bring US forces back from “eternal wars”.
The Republican president, a former New York businessman who prides himself on his business skills, has kept some of his promises and partially fulfilled others, while so far he has completely failed to keep some of them.
Analysts and former American and European officials say that if Trump loses in the November 3 elections to his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, the most difficult challenge for the new administration will be to restore the United States’ global standing and trustworthiness.
Biden, who was vice president under Barack Obama, will therefore manage a marked relationship with Europe, strong rivalries with China and pressure campaigns focused on sanctions against Iran, Syria and Venezuela.
Middle East files
When Democratic candidates talk about the US role in the world, they generally focus on the intention to rebuild the American alliances that Trump’s “America First” slogan has damaged.
Democrats generally agree on the need to return to the nuclear deal from which Trump withdrew and work to push North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program and a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Burning Middle East issues and open conflicts on multiple fronts, especially differences with Iran and its proxy weapons in the region, are among the Trump administration’s top priorities and challenges facing Biden if he wins.
Observers predict major shifts in Middle Eastern politics will occur between the US election in November and the Iranian presidential election in May 2022. As polls indicate, Joe Biden is likely to be America’s next president. In light of this, President Biden is likely to bring US foreign policy back to the Obama years.
Biden can bring America back to the nuclear deal with Iran and other world powers. On the other hand, Iran is likely to ask for clear guarantees that Washington will not seek regime change in Tehran, one of the goals the Trump administration has declared it pursues.
Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in 2018, saying he could have reached a better deal. He also launched the “maximum pressure” campaign to stifle Tehran’s resources.
Although it has been nearly two years during which Washington has imposed sanctions on almost everything from oil and mining revenues to the Iranian central bank, it has still not managed to force Tehran to change its behavior and return to the negotiating table. Indeed, the tension between the two countries increased, until they almost went to war.
Biden says he will deal with Iran through diplomacy and return to the deal, but only on the condition that Tehran returns first to comply with the restrictions imposed on its nuclear program.
Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump has kept his promise, made during his 2016 election campaign, to move the US embassy to Israel in the Jerusalem uniform. The move was criticized by most Arab countries, but it won the acclaim of the Israeli government and its supporters, as well as evangelical Christians.
The Palestinians have rejected its broader peace plan because it allows Israel to continue to control West Bank settlements, which have long been in conflict.
As for Biden’s 2020 campaign, it is said that if elected, the embassy that Trump moved to Jerusalem will not return to Tel Aviv, but will reopen a consulate in East Jerusalem, which Israel has annexed “to communicate with Palestinians.” Biden also rejected Trump’s controversial Middle East peace plan, describing it as a “political ploy” and pledging to conduct new negotiations on the basis of a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Biden will face an opponent that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as Israel’s best friend ever in the White House.
Nor was the tension that marred Netanyahu’s relationship with former President Barack Obama, of whom Biden was his running mate, hidden. But some experts say Biden’s victory will be welcomed by the Israeli political and military establishment, not just Netanyahu’s left-wing opponents. Biden was known to be an outspoken supporter of Israel, as he said in a speech in 2015 that the United States must keep its “sacred promise to protect the homeland of the Jewish people.”
However, experts have indicated that Biden could also restore the traditional US role as an interlocutor between Israel and the Palestinians, after the PA cut off relations with Trump, accusing him of blatant prejudice towards Israel.
Observers are not optimistic about Badin’s victory, especially regarding the direction of his administration in the region in light of security challenges and increased foreign interference with the continuing role of Iran’s sabotage and growing Turkish ambitions, especially in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
According to a political analyst for Middle East and South Asian affairs, Denis Kamat, the prospects don’t look great for those calling for a better life in the region, especially those in Baghdad and Beirut, both for Trump’s victory per second. turn that for Biden’s arrival in the White House. Both countries are politically weak, due to the presence of rival sectarian politicians who owe allegiance to foreign powers. The reason for the stalemate in political reform is that competing powers in the region have not resolved their differences. The path for change in Beirut and Baghdad revolves around Tehran, Washington, Riyadh, Paris and Tel Aviv.
Relations with China
Trump’s accusation of “exploiting” his country by China was a central theme of his campaign in 2016, coinciding with his promise to conclude a fair trade agreement with Beijing that helps American companies and provides jobs to Americans.
After a nearly two-year trade war with the second world economy, Trump has only managed to reach a first phase of the deal, the implementation of which has so far been blocked.
At the same time, Washington and Beijing have traded tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in goods and the outbreak of the Corona virus in the world from China has led to the deterioration of bilateral relations, reaching the lowest levels in decades, giving rise to fears of a new cold war.
Washington has taken action against Beijing on multiple fronts: it has ended Hong Kong’s status, imposed sanctions on senior officials for human rights violations, and sought to ban Chinese tech companies from operating in the United States.
Analysts say the Biden administration will have little choice but to keep this tough stance, but will likely try to soften the tone a bit to allow for the opportunity to deal with China.
On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly complained that many NATO partners have not met their defense spending targets. He also questioned the feasibility of continuing the alliance established in 1949 at the start of the Cold War with Russia.
His criticisms have led to a deterioration in relations with several European allies, but more members of the alliance have now increased spending to meet the 2% of GDP target.
Trump has pledged this year to reduce the number of US forces in Germany, accusing Berlin of exploiting the US without fulfilling its obligations under the alliance.
Analysts say reforming the transatlantic alliance will take time, but is expected to be one of the easier tasks a Biden administration could await.
Trump promised in his 2016 election campaign to distance himself from foreign wars and return American soldiers from Afghanistan, which is witnessing the longest war fought by his country, where it is entering its nineteenth year.
Washington began reducing the number of troops in Afghanistan following a deal with the Taliban in February that sought to withdraw all US forces. But this is due to the stalemate in talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Trump also ordered the withdrawal of US forces from Syria. His aides and the military have repeatedly downplayed the decision’s importance, but the numbers have been cut by more than half.
As for the relationship with North Korea, Trump surprised the world by initiating unprecedented talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. While he has made no progress in persuading Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, some believe his ice-melting diplomacy could be the building block for any future administration.
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