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While four mass bleaching events up to 2017 have been covered by the latest research, the damage to coral species caused by bleaching in early 2020 has yet to be assessed.
It was the most widespread bleaching ever recorded, affecting the southern areas of the reef for the first time.
Hughes said scientists expected corals to continue dying unless nations fulfilled their commitment in the Paris Agreement to keep the global mean temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). above pre-industrial levels.
“It takes about a decade for a semi-decent recovery for the fastest growing species, so the chances we get decades between the future sixth, seventh and eighth bleaching event are close to freezing because temperatures are because they go up and up. and they go up, “He said.
If temperatures stabilize at the end of this century below the Paris target, it is hoped that corals will be able to reassemble and rebuild their numbers.
Even then, Hughes said, “we don’t think they’ll rebuild into the mix of species we’ve known historically.”
If the rise is up to 3 or 4 degrees Celsius, “forget it,” he said.
“The trajectory is changing very, very rapidly – we are shocked and surprised at how quickly these changes are happening – and there are more changes on the way.”
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