[ad_1]
Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modeling data suggests public health officials may soon be faced with an exceptionally difficult task: getting the Ontario weary to downsize or cancel Christmas gatherings in the face of rising number of cases. .
Data presented Thursday by the province predicts that Ontario will likely be in the midst of a significant increase in the pandemic at the start of the holiday season, unless further restrictions are implemented.
Assuming a growth rate of five percent, Ontario is expected to see between 6,000 and 7,000 cases daily by mid-December. These figures would exceed the adjusted case rate for the population in the UK, France and Germany, where full or partial blockades are in place.
Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health and co-chair of Ontario’s COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Table, called the five percent growth projection “slightly optimistic” during a press conference on Thursday.
The province has seen cases grow by about four percent in the past week.
“Without changes, the odds of cases declining by Christmas are very, very low,” said Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Given current trends, Tuite said action will be needed to slow the rate of growth.
“There is no version of reality where the virus suddenly stops growing on its own and things are going well by the end of December,” he said.
The provincial government has not yet disclosed specific recommendations for Christmas gatherings, but local public health authorities in Toronto and the Peel region recommend that residents limit their contacts only to people in their family and essential supports.
It is unclear when these recommendations could be revoked or changed.
“We will continue to review our local data and circumstances and provide further recommendations based on this information as we move forward and approach the holiday season,” said Dr Vinita Dubey, Toronto Associate Health Officer.
‘A hit at Christmas’
Recommendations to strictly limit contacts risk facing a serious challenge at Christmas, which has been discussed for months as a possible reward for good behavior during the second wave of the pandemic.
“It’s all too likely that we won’t get together for Thanksgiving, but we still have a chance at Christmas,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on September 23.
Thursday’s modeling data appears to have greatly reduced the chances that Ontarians will be celebrating a regular Christmas, which could be a significant source of new infections based on recent trends.
Earlier this fall, Thanksgiving gatherings are said to have contributed to an increase in cases about two weeks after the holidays.
Provincial public health leaders have also blamed family reunions as a dangerous case driver in recent weeks.
“These meetings have meant that people have too much contact with each other,” said Dr. David Williams, Ontario health director.
How to change behavior
Samantha Yammine, a neuroscientist and science writer, said convincing people to cut back on vacation will require a new approach from politicians and health leaders.
“I think at this stage hearing, ‘No, no, no, you can’t do this, you can’t do this,’ and this type of abstinence communication is not effective,” Yammine said. “It doesn’t help and it won’t work for our biggest holiday season.”
Yammine, known online as “Science Sam,” has garnered an audience of nearly 100,000 followers across a variety of social media, where she shares data, advice and news related to the pandemic.
Yammine said people are struggling with guilt and are feeling increasingly reluctant to turn down requests from friends and family, in part because of what has been widely described as COVID fatigue.
He said public health messages should recognize this reality and shift to a harm reduction approach where possible.
“At this stage we need to tell people what they can do and provide them with the information – backed by science, backed by public health experts – to make decisions with the least possible risk.”
He said public health officials could start by suggesting ways for people to hold low-risk meetings, which could potentially take place indoors with precautionary measures like masks, physical distances, and open windows, even in cold weather.
No plans for higher restrictions yet
While Ontario’s projected case growth surpasses several European countries that are now in some form of lockdown, the province has not yet committed to applying additional restrictions that could slow the spread of the virus.
Dr. Williams said at Thursday’s press conference that cases could conceivably begin to decline if people adhere to public health recommendations.
“If everyone did what they should do, we could reduce those numbers,” he said.
Outside experts like Tuite have not expressed a similar hope and instead say that further government action will be needed.
“We need surgery,” he said.
Source link
