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The November issue of ‘Recent Economic Trends’
The government has determined that some economic indicators are showing improvement, but uncertainty in the real economy continues.
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance stated in the ‘Recent Economic Trends’ (Green Book, November issue) published on 13, “Recently, the Korean economy has continued to recover slowly in exports and has improved production, consumption and investments, but the recovery of service and employment indicators was limited In the center, uncertainty continues in the real economy due to the spread of the global Crown 19 ”.
Unlike last month, he added a diagnosis that “production, consumption and investment have improved”.
The recovery trend is believed to be spreading to other areas.
The Ministry of Science and Technology assessed that “externally, the improvement in physical indicators has weakened due to the continued spread of Corona 19 in major countries and strengthened containment measures, and concerns about delaying global economic recovery increase, but expectations for vaccine development are also spreading.
A quick look at the October consumption data reveals the improving trend in indicators linked to domestic demand.
The amount of credit card approval in Korea increased 5.2% from a year ago and has continued to increase for six consecutive months since May.
Discounters sales increased 2.8% and the increase was greater than in September (2.1%).
The growth rate of department store sales, negative for three consecutive months from July to September, also turned positive at 2.4% in October.
Online sales increased by 26.6%.
The consumer confidence climate index (CSI), which had contracted due to Corona 19, was 91.6, a marked improvement on the previous month (79.4).
However, domestic sales of passenger cars fell by 0.4%.
In September it increased by 19.3%, but turned into a decline.
The number of Yuke (Chinese tourists) who visited Korea decreased by 97.8%, up from last month (-97.1%).
Both production and expenditure indicators improved.
Looking at the trend of industrial activity in September, mining production increased by 5.4% from the previous month with the increase in mining and manufacturing activities and production in the service sector increased by 0.3%.
All industrial production increased by 2.3%.
Retail sales increased 1.7%, facility investments increased 7.4%, and construction investments increased 6.4%.
However, the employment indicator has deteriorated.
The number of employees in October decreased by 421,000 compared to a year ago, but the decline increased compared to the previous month (-392,000).
The unemployment rate was 3.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the same month last year.
Kim Young-hoon, head of the Economic Analysis Division of the Ministry of Equipment, explained that the gap between the industrial production index and the employment index was “the employment index is a representative economic lag index, so it is difficult to say that the two indicators must go together “.
Consumer prices in October increased by only 0.1% compared to the same month last year.
This is due to a sharp drop in public service prices to 20,000 won in government-borne communication expenses as a fourth supplementary budget.
Exports show a modest recovery.
Exports in October fell by 3.6% compared to a year ago.
However, the average daily export, taking into account the number of working days, increased by 5.6%.
“Overall, exports continue to improve dramatically,” Kim said. “There are still more than 100 confirmed cases of Corona 19 in Korea and global spread is not easy, so tightening overseas containment measures will affect our exports.” We need to look at the flow of positive indicators and risk factors together. “.
The BSI (corporate due diligence index) of the manufacturing industry, which shows business sentiment, increased both the October results (79) and the November forecast (76) compared to the previous month.
In the October real estate market, both the increase in the selling price (0.32%) and the increase in the jeonse price (0.47%) decreased compared to the previous month.
/ news yunhap
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