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This article was written by Tariq Osman, political adviser for the Arab world at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The views below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of CNN.
With the announcement of the results of the US presidential election, three errors began to appear in the perception of the upcoming directions of the Joe Biden administration towards the Arab world.
1- The first mistake is to imagine it as a continuation of what stopped at the end of the Barack Obama administration. That’s because a lot has happened in the past four years during President Donald Trump’s administration, which changed reality in important ranks for the United States. And also because Joe Biden, even though he was vice president in the Obama era, American history has taught us that a vice president, in any administration, is a small part of the decision-making machine. And if he becomes president, we will always see new ideas and visions for him. The same will happen to Joe Biden.
2- The second mistake is that we can visualize the Biden administration’s priorities and working methods by reviewing the Democratic Party’s priorities and working methods in Arab affairs over the past decade. This is also a mistake, because Biden (with his long history) represents trends in the party that are very far from those of Obama and even of Hillary Clinton and John Kerry (the foreign ministers of the two Obama administrations).
3- The third mistake is to portray the Donald Trump era as a moment of cacophony in a stringed piece of music. This is because Trump, regardless of his style, made decisions and proceeded with policies that were expressions of major changes in the United States’ view of the Arab world, changes in the American reality itself, and changes in the international arena. be, because those changes are irreversible. In it and understanding it is necessary because it governs America’s relations with the Arab world for the foreseeable future.
First: changes in the US view of the Arab world:
With the cost of producing stone energy falling and the rapid development of alternative energy in the United States, we are now at the end of the era of oil as the main energy in the world that the West needs for life. Indeed, over the past decade, this has resulted in a gradual reduction in the importance of the Arab world to the United States.
There is also a decline in the importance of the Arab world as a danger … which means that the perception of violence used in the name of Islam as an imminent threat to the United States and its interests in the world has declined greatly over the past two. decades, and has become in the eyes of many American think tanks, the same as different types of problems, Containable … and this has led to less American interest in the details of social development in the Arab world.
Second, there are the changes in the American reality.
Donald Trump’s success was the new episode in the rise of the Christian right in the United States as one of the strongest social currents, mainly due to its ability to mobilize. Joe Biden’s defeat of Trump did not change this reality. We will therefore see that the two major parties in the United States (Republican and Democrat) will try to influence that current to introduce it into the political center, but no doubt they will not try to antagonize it. In fact, the practices relating to the Middle East, which this current holds very much, are among the easiest that the two sides can offer to conquer it. This means that the American view on some points within dossiers such as the Palestinian / Israeli conflict will not change significantly in the coming phase. We will see a change in language and styles, but not in substance and direction.
There is another change here, Arab but influential in the American interior and its relationship with the Arab world .. which is that the Arab views of the most influential in the United States have been different. Until recently, the main Arab countries, in particular Saudi Arabia and Egypt, had deep relations and weight in the dialogues with the decision-making centers in Washington. But now the picture is different. Various countries, such as the UAE and Qatar, and interest groups in other countries, such as Lebanon, have invested heavily (and to a large extent successfully) in expanding and deepening their relations in the United States. This has happened in the last decade when the influence of traditional institutions in Washington has diminished in American decision making, in contrast to an increase in the influence of various societies and groups. The conclusion of this is that there has been a shift in the core of the American view of the Arab world … namely that the American view has moved from the Eastern Mediterranean region (where traditional priorities and issues are) to the Gulf, and not to it as a source of energy, but because there are friends and Financiers. Often the focus will remain on this region – again, not in terms of the future, but in terms of the sources of money within it that want partnerships with interests in the United States. This is a type of relationship that is far from traditional decision-making institutions, but that continues to interest (both of the group and of important people).
Third, the changes in the international arena:
The center of the world as it was known in the past (Europe and the Middle East) has become less important to the United States than in Asia, where the power that is about to become great (China) and where the most important and largest markets, and where the largest financial savings in the world, and where it has potential strategic conflicts The US administration is far more important than anything that is happening in the Middle East and the Arab world. Consequently: first: the United States will reduce what it spends (in terms of concentration, work energy and political capital) in the Arab world … and second: it will try to take from the region (which in its view is an American influence zone) that it will help him in his main struggle. Forward to Asia. This not only reduces the importance of the region, but also reduces the importance of some old American alliances and promises.
Beyond all this, there are other important changes: in the perception of the influential Arab circles in the United States.
1- After two decades of continuous American wars in the Middle East, the United States appears to many as a giant in motion, and their movement is dangerous, but without clear objectives. This is because all the American wars in the region over the past two decades do not seem to have achieved the main strategic goals for the United States. Set your goals.
2- Most Arab decision-making circles are now convinced that China has a reasonable opportunity (at least) to challenge US interests in a number of regions of the world. Russia was also able to revive a measure of the Soviet Union’s power, not as a superpower, but as a country with interests that could not be transgressed. All of this has diminished the image of the United States (since the 1980s) of being the country with the solution and the connection in everything and everything. The result here is that those Arab circles, some time ago, started laying eggs in different baskets.
All this does not mean that we are facing an American departure from the region, nor an Arab bet on the powers competing with the United States. But those changes – on the American and Arab side – require a pause to consider the future of American relations with a number of countries and regions of the Arab world, because what is coming is undoubtedly different from what it was, decades or a few years. does.
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