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The new model – which is basically a single equation with several terms multiplied together – estimates the risk of airborne transmission of COVID-19. Researchers are motivated in their work through a simple but historically significant mathematical formula known as the Drake equation. This formula predicts the likelihood of finding intelligent extraterrestrial life in our galaxy.
Developed in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake, this equation is based on just seven variables and provides an “easy-to-understand framework” for looking at something as seemingly unknowable as the number of alien civilizations, the study authors said.
They want to provide a similar framework for understanding the risks of contracting COVID-19. “There is still a lot of confusion about the way COVID-19 is transmitted. This is partly due to the fact that there is no common ‘language’ that makes it easy to understand the risk factors involved,” said Rajat Mittal, a professor at the Department of Mechanics. Engineering at Johns Hopkins University in a related statement on the website. Live science.
“What really needs to happen for someone to get infected? If we can visualize this process more clearly and quantitatively, we can make better decisions about which activities to continue and which to avoid,” he said.
The new model, published Oct.7 in the journal Physics of Fluids, splits the transmission of COVID-19 into three phases. Each of them emits virus-containing “droplets” from an infected person into the air, spreads these droplets and inhales these droplets from the susceptible person.
Overall, the model is made up of 10 variables involved in COVID-19 transmission. These include the respiratory rates of infected and susceptible people, the number of viral particles in exhaled droplets, and the exposure time of susceptible people. .
The authors then used their model, which they called the airborne transmission inequality (CAT) model, to estimate the risk of transmission in various scenarios, including when people use face masks or practice social distancing. as well as when people exercise. In the inequality model, if the amount of virus inhaled is greater than the amount needed to cause infection, other people will get sick.
A big caveat, we currently don’t know how many particles are needed to cause an infection. As a result, the model cannot calculate the absolute risk of infection, but can only compare risk levels for different activities.
For face masks, the researchers estimated that, all other factors being equal, a scenario in which an infected and susceptible individual wore an N95 mask could reduce the risk of transmission by a factor of 400, compared to a scenario in which the two people weren’t. wear a mask. Surgical masks can reduce transmission by a factor of 10 and cloth masks by a factor of 7 if both parties wear masks.
In scenarios where people train vigorously, such as in a gym, the risk of contagion skyrockets. “Imagine two people Tapis Roulant from Gym, both were out of breath than usual. An infected person exhales more droplets and an uninfected person inhales more droplets. In that confined space, the risk of transmission increases by 200 times compared to a scenario where people don’t exercise, “Mittal said.
Regarding social distance, the researchers found a linear relationship between distance and transmission risk. “If you double your distance, you usually double your protection,” Mittal said in a separate statement from the diary. “The scale or rules of this kind can help inform politics.”
The researchers note that they hope this simple and intuitive model will be accessible not only to scientists, but also to policy makers and even the general public. They admit that their model makes a number of assumptions and that it includes key unknown variables.
However, the authors hope their work will inform future research that will close the loopholes in the spread of COVID-19. (Read also: The first time NASA found water on the moon’s sunlit surface)
(iqb)
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