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New research led by a team of international sea ice experts led by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) detailed the likely results of Arctic sea ice contraction and highlighted the urgent need for further research to inform the future decision making and climate modeling.
Led by IMAS associate professor Delphine Lannuzel and published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the study explores how Arctic sea ice loss due to climate change will disrupt the region’s biogeochemistry and ecosystems.
Associate Professor Lannuzel said improving understanding of the likely implications is important both for the accuracy of global climate models and for issues such as Arctic resource management and marine governance.
‘The rapid transformation of the sea ice landscape will cause disruptions in almost all aspects of Arctic chemistry and life,’ said Professor Lannuzel.
“Sea ice in the Arctic is expected to continue to become thinner, younger and less durable, and we are only beginning to understand how deep, complex and diverse the consequences will be.
“We anticipate impacts across the food web, from microorganisms to major predators such as whales.
“At the bottom of the food chain, a warmer and sunnier Arctic will allow frozen algae blooms and phytoplankton to be more productive, but less diverse. A big unknown is the amount of nutrients available to support this growth.
“The most likely outcome includes an increase in the recycling of carbon produced in surface waters and a reduction in the amount of carbon exported to the seabed.
“Overall, Arctic endemic species, such as beluga whales, polar bears and polar cod, will decline as their habitat decreases and will be replaced by sub-polar species better adapted to the new conditions,” he said.
Associate Professor Lannuzel said other changes will include:
· A reduction of atmospheric halogens and therefore a decrease in ozone depletion events (ODE);
· An increase in emissions of methane greenhouse gases from the ocean into the atmosphere; is
· An increase in the emission of dimethylsulfide, a gas that helps produce clouds.
“The net impact on Arctic CO2 capture is highly uncertain,” said associate professor Lannuzel.
“Depending on the processes involved, the Arctic Ocean can capture or emit more CO2; It is hard to say.
“A better understanding of these complex interactions will enable more accurate representations of the influence of Arctic changes in global climate models and improve our predictive capabilities.
“A reduced extent of sea ice also has consequences for conservation and resource management as it will lead to greater human pressure on wildlife in the Arctic through navigation, oil and gas exploration, fishing and tourism.
“Studies like ours are therefore essential for the development of effective maritime governance schemes for the future.
‘For all these reasons, long-term observations and intensified modeling efforts are vital to support further research that can improve our understanding of this complex system,’ said Professor Lannuzel.
“Closer to home, we are now in the process of making a similar prognosis for Antarctica.”
The research included more than 30 researchers from Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Germany, Belgium, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and South Africa.
Image credit: Dmitry Divine, Norwegian Polar Institute.
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