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"The visionaries will forge ahead; those hoping for immediate industry and process transformation will give up." Forrester's DLT / blockchain predictions for 2018.
I'm repeating it here, because it will continue to hold true for 2019 – with one proviso: There's a real risk that we'll experience the beginning of "blockchain winter," as the continued absence of miracles and revolutionary developments leads decision makers to throw out the proverbial baby with the bath water and stop distributed-ledger-technology-related investments completely. While this would be a major impact on innovation in the wider ecosystem of public blockchains and ambitious startups, it would be a serious setback for the development of enterprise-grade solutions and networks.
Also: In this country, your cryptocurrency must go through your bank
Here's what to watch for in blockchain and DTL in 2019:
- In enterprises, we'll see a shift in terminology from "blockchain" to DLT. The move towards different language has two key drivers. First, innovators in the United States of America. A real solution for the purpose of this solution is to be a real solution to a real solution that is not a real blockchain – an argument that is unwinnable anyway, given the different architectures of the platforms that are available today.
- Platform proliferation will continue. In 2018, Ethereum / Quorum, Hyperledger Fabric, R3's Corda, Digital Asset Holdings' software, and MultiChain have been the platform we've most frequently encountered in live systems or major developments. We are expecting more contenders to emerge, given the number of well-funded projects that are under way and promise to address some of the key shortcomings in existing architectures.
- Technology shortcomings will not be the biggest inhibitor. Whether it is going to be a "non-tech" issue, "whether it is" "agreeing on data and process definitions", "smart contract rules", "access permissions, or governance frameworks and legal agreements". I often use the phrase, "blockchains are 80% business, 20% technology." If anything, that 80% is on the low side, and we'll continue to see projects held up or even fail because companies' focus is on the 20%.
The pruning of projects that we have predicted for 2018 has taken place and continues. We've also seen initiatives go live that deliver immediate benefits as well as the foundation for potential process redesign. When it comes to more transformational potential, the visionaries will continue on their path. While we will not see any breakthrough deployments in 2019, the tokenization of digital and physical assets will be one of the key areas of innovation.
–By Martha Bennett, principal analyst
Download Forrester's complimentary predictions 2019 guide to understand why 2019 will be the year that transformation goes pragmatic.
This post originally appeared here.
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