Blockchain in 2030: CSIRO presents four visions of the future

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It is worth trying to predict the future, especially when you are able to change it.

Where do you see blockchain in ten years?

CSIRO has thought about it a lot and has done a lot of research and has given me many answers.

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The year is 2030

The year is 2030 and you're doing well for your age.

The underlying vision of the future was based on the Global Megatrends report by CSIRO 2012, which created a sort of foundation on which to superimpose different blockchain scenarios. CSIRO suggests several new realities with which the world will have to deal, as well as the blockchain could be applicable to each.

The new reality	Blockchain applications
Stretched thin Reduction of resources, population growth and financial mobility towards the top with corresponding increases in demand and consumption.	New ways to record information without problems to manage increasingly scarce and valuable resources in a more equitable and effective way.
Bacteria resistant to widespread and ultra-deadly antibiotics, pesticide-resistant parasites and herbicide-resistant diseases. Mass migration induced by climate change associated with fatal diseases is rather unpleasant and further tensions limit resources.	Monitoring of sources of pests and diseases with greater accuracy and granularity, faster response to epidemics, improvement of border security with IOT technology and guarantee of better integrity of the pharmaceutical chain to limit the effects of counterfeit drugs on antibiotic resistant bacteria.
A new world economic order India and China are transformed into the main economic powers of the world, experiencing a growing service economy and the middle class. New business models, cultural ties and business relationships emerge in response to economic changes.	Opportunities to significantly reduce international trade barriers, supply chain frictions and global international trade.
Aging populations An elderly and increasingly long-lived and long-lived population that CSIRO has nicknamed "the silver generation". The good news is that they bring a wealth of wisdom. The bad news is that they are facing an endless array of health costs, difficulty saving for longer retirement and will have a major impact on the labor markets through subsequent retirement. CSIRO expects that these financial pressures will result in a large amount of fraud, on the part of both the silver generation and their underemployed descendants.	Blockchain applications to reduce fraud will become more necessary, IOT medical devices will be widely used and people will have many very uncomfortable financial conversations.
A kind of World Wide Web Everyday life will manifest itself more and more in digital spaces. Augmented and virtual reality will evolve from a novelty into a normal accentuation of everyday life and rapid hyper-connectivity will shape organizational and individual behaviors.	Blockchain can be an essential part of providing security and trust in a digital world and protecting data online. It is not known whether it is completely suitable for managing all the huge new volumes of data created in these digital spaces.
Porosity Barriers of all kinds start to break as technology allows for more intersectoral movement, horizontal organizational structures become the preferred way to be agile in a faster digital world. The technologies that remove intermediaries, such as cryptocurrencies and the sharing of economic systems, contribute significantly to this porosity.	Blockchain can present an immutable registration of the intellectual property gained and the results achieved in the course of one's career and become valuable ways of managing projects carried out through increasingly horizontal networks. Silos become rather impractical.

The position of Blockchain

Blockchain has many places in this changing world, suggests CSIRO.

However, it is crucial to ensure that technology develops so that the world is able to fully exploit it when the time comes. As highlighted in its four visions of the future, the most important factor could be that it can be trusted. Without that, it could all go very badly and within a dozen years the world could be left in a position where it could really use blockchain, but it got its chance and blew it up.

Of course, it is worth noting that these are not the future predictions of CSIRO. Rather, they are only hypothetical imaginations of the future that follow four different lines of thought; suction blockchain, transformation, new balance and collapse.

• Aspiration – Track regulations: The vision of CSIRO's aspirational blockchain is one in which a cohesive regulatory environment has nurtured and developed blockchain in a valuable and reliable addition to the dawn industries such as additive manufacturing and digital intellectual property.
• Transformation: the sheriff on the digital highway: This scenario sees industry taking a leadership role in the development of blockchain and IOT technologies. Blockchain, by necessity, becomes a sheriff supported by the industry on the digital highway, creating trust between the parties for the benefit of all.
• New balance – A bumpy ride: A largely unregulated market without guidelines and industry standards creates uncertainty in the longevity, quality and reliability of blockchain and cryptocurrency technologies. The absolute lack of quality and regulatory cohesion sees a lot of people producing many trash systems, which undermine confidence in technology as a whole.
• Collapse – A slippery slope: Blockchain was abandoned after various problems caused the stagnation of technology and the adoption and regulation of the deadlock.

Scenario 1: Aspiration

This scenario sees the well informed, organized and sensible politicians of Australia proactively encouraging the exploration of blockchain technologies in anticipation of a changing world, rather than continually devoting efforts to ridiculous infighting.

It is hypothetical.

By 2030, the increasingly competitive state of the world has seen a significant increase in fraud, corruption and competition for resources, but thanks to previous efforts, the Australian government has been able to use technology very effectively for the management of resources , fraud prevention and the general organization. Compliance is an important cost, but the corporate world detects the effectiveness of blockchain systems and effectively implements it to reduce ever-increasing compliance costs and improve the system's effectiveness.

By early 2030, the early adoption by Australia of the blockchain is bearing fruit with a comprehensive system for the management of intellectual property. This is particularly important because Australia has also moved abruptly towards additive manufacturing to help sustain the logistical costs associated with its geographic isolation.

Blockchain is everywhere in Australia. It is widely reliable and known to be perfectly reliable, which forms the basis of the advantages it can offer. Blockchain quality control is rigorously applied and standards are developed to enable them to be adopted and implemented on a large scale. Australia has its own digital currency that works across the system and can coexist or not with other currency brands.

Scenario 2: transformation

In this vision of the future, technology companies have become the sheriffs on the digital highway, implementing their solutions to instill the trust of users in the systems that everyone uses every day. This could be done with confidence alone, or it could have been achieved with the advent of decentralized systems, effective and without trust.

"Distributed logs are used to ensure the integrity of IOT devices, their configurations and the authenticity of software and updates," describes CSIRO. "There must be a policeman on the move, and in this globalized" cloud by default "world dotted with devices, distributed registries have been replaced to provide confidence."

Devices have proliferated rapidly, overwhelming the world of information and decentralized registers have been used to ensure the source of information and bring confidence to the world of data. Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are commonly used to build trust where needed.

Smart devices of all kinds, from door locks to wearable devices to permanent installations, are now in the repertoire of everyday life. The systems bring many benefits, but are pervasively woven into the fabric of everyday life. This entails new risks that must be managed and regulations are geared to ensuring that they have been managed.

Australia has prepared this new world with regulations that can better guarantee the quality of products and that can be used without problems together with IOT devices. Programmable money is a necessity and finds its way into the ecosystem, regardless of whether it is a digital card, a bitcoin or something else.

Scenario 3: new balance

The regulators, wary of unwittingly suffocating innovation, have left the market to themselves compared to the distributed registers. The free market has not wasted time insinuating that trust, with a series of products that are overly publicized and under execution and scams outright.

Regulatory authorities cut down the most serious crimes, where appropriate, but otherwise tend to let market forces develop without taking a stand.

Here, ongoing problems have weakened confidence in the technology of generalized registries as a whole, and historians have fully exploited this through advertising and lobbying heavily against new technologies, to better maintain their grip. mortal.

The lack of global standards and unified regulation has been a major obstacle, and the technology of distributed registers eventually turns off after countless companies have taken advantage of its reliability in the early days to unjustly scold people, conduct business in shady ways. lawyers from jurisdictions where it is legal and manipulates markets and smart contracts for their purposes. One of the worst excesses of this type was the return of "wildcat banking" and the companies that coined their token with artificially inflated nominal value, and then used it to pay the workers.

Faced with regulatory complacency and a handful of abuses, the world by 2030 has not yet achieved the benefits of shared accounting or cryptocurrency technology. Instead, the material has just become a new chapter in the history books, in which it is remembered as an example of the old times and a product of less enlightened times.

However, the rise and fall of the blockchain has left its effects. In an example of the sailing ship effect, the rise and fall of distributed register technology has been enough to scare the incumbents of the industry into a new development, and has nonetheless led to new ways of thinking that have informed and encouraged future developments.

The future is not as it could be, but it is still something.

Scenario 4: Compress me

Blockchain and cryptocurrency arrive quickly and hit hard.

As with the previous scenario, they come to a regulatory vacuum that individuals and companies quickly grab for the purpose of making money as fast as possible.

But unlike the previous scenario, they are still widely adopted. Blockchains make their way into multiple aspects of everyday life, and then the crimes start rolling.

In addition to the new wildcat banks, it was discovered that insurance oracles were deliberately mis-configured to avoid paying claims and raising premiums, and all that touches is the collection of data to sell to the highest bidder and then to the lowest bidders, in this order. Your personal information, including medical records and criminal charges that should have been erased after you've proved yourself innocent, are left blank on unsecured public blockchain. There is no way to hide or remove this information.

Some newly established DAOs turn out to be definitive ponzi schemes, but the legal painfulness of pursuing these seemingly autonomous organizations prevents a conclusion and lets them linger in the blockchain ecosystem like bad breath. In the end, to hit the odds, to pretend that justice has been served and why the real culprits are out of reach, prosecutors chase the mother and pop investors who have been taken by these DAOs.

People lose confidence in technology and execute emotionally charged digital currency banking. Many digital currencies collapse completely, and the extent to which the blockchain has been intertwined with traditional economics means that the collapse rages across the world.

Everything that touches blockchain, even the most intentioned and practical projects, has become dust – if it is lucky. The word blockchain is permanently stained, the experiment has definitely failed. Later, the Australian government decides to ban blockchain and digital currencies to get easy political points and look busy.

Dang.

What's the point?

The point of the CSIRO scenarios is to inform the ways in which regulations can and must shape the future of technology. Because, as he explains, the future is shaped like a cone.

The closer you get to the future, the more difficult it is to make predictions. Essentially, the field of possibilities extends towards the end of the cone. It is possible to predict the near future with a much higher degree of certainty than the distant future – in other words there is a narrower range of possibilities. You still reach 2030 and you are observing a wide range of options.

The point of this visualization is to highlight the probable results next to the least likely results and to assess whether some of the least likely results might be preferable to the most likely ones.

If combined with this kind of scenario, you have a new way of considering some of the seemingly self-evident truths. For example, if a slight regulatory touch really promotes long-term innovation. The "hands-off" approach could also kill blockchain innovation leading to scenario 3 or 4.

The question could be how to best define the desired results. And then, once the desirable results have been identified, push them away regardless of how likely or unlikely (where they are on the cone) they are.

It's all pretty intuitive, but it's still a potentially useful way to visualize the potential utility of pursuing some of the less likely future results, rather than merely pursuing one or two of the most likely results.

The take-away key, besides the blockchain is interesting, is that starting early is the key to maximizing the ability to change the future. You can not bring the circle to the ideal result at the last minute, but identifying it well in advance, even the most far-fetched futures can become more and more feasible over time.

"While we are not able to provide a complete picture of all the opportunities for blockchain technology at the moment, some initial recommendations are evident," concludes CSIRO.

Its main recommendation could be an additional investment in R & D in reliable blockchains, to help advance development so that the Australian government can drive private sector developments, if necessary.

You might not place a perfect target on the desired future, but it's probably worth trying to get as close as possible.

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