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Original title: $ 48! The power of China has shown its power again and SC is leading a big turnaround in oil prices!
Source: Energy R&D Center
perspective
APIA bad report cannot reduce market enthusiasm!
The crude oil market continues to advance with optimism,The price of the SC went up by more than 20 yuan for two consecutive days, and the price of Brent rose as high as $ 48. The outer disc was fully back in range when Saudi Arabia started the price war in early September. ‘year. The Brent market has finally returned to the premium structure in recent months. In this year, the price of crude oil has fallen from US $ 70 to US $ 16, before climbing back to US $ 48. The process was torturous. The trend in the price of oil was beyond imagination and even market participants were tortured. Finally, under the good expectations of the vaccine, Price made up most of the lost ground.
Not just the price of crude oil, but the performance of US stocks is even more surprising. The Dow Jones Index crossed the 30,000 mark for the first time in history. Although the vaccine has not yet been fully commercialized, optimistic expectations can no longer stop the enthusiasm for funding. Safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar are pressed to the bottom of the market, and the optimism of the entire financial market makes the rise in crude more positive.
Judging from the current situation, the price of crude oil broke through the upper pressure range in one fell swoop, indicating that the market has undergone a fundamental upward movement process. In the future, we want to see BrentPrices under $ 40 can be very difficult. In the initial phase, we suggested that the bottom below US $ 40 may also continue to hold, pending a higher price position. From the perspective of technical indicators, this time the price has risen sharply, driven by the high market sentiment of various bullish resonances and the persistence of the upward movement after the excitement and the upper space is open for discussion. Therefore, if the Brent price goes back below $ 47, investors who have gone short can add a small amount of additional part, but it shouldn’t be too high.
Daily News
【1]WTI crude oil futures closed higher by US $ 1.75, or 4.06%, at US $ 44.91 a barrel; prime Brent crude oil futures closed higher US $ 1.81, or 3.93%, at US $ 47.78 a barrel; Reported at 290.6 yuan.
【2]Offshore Renminbi (CNH) posted against the US dollar6．5729Yuan, compared to the last trading day in New York3Point, the entire intraday trading is a6．5655-6．5969Range of yuan.
Recent news
【1]The oil price hike hit its highest level since March, buoyed by vaccine advances and Biden’s handover; ① Oil prices rose about 4% on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since March. Upbeat news of third new corona vaccine candidate spurred demand for oil Hope for a quick recovery; in addition, US President-elect Biden can finally begin the handover; ②The British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca said on Monday that the actual rate of its new corona vaccine in key trials is 70% and is expected to rise to 90%; this Bringing to the world the third new weapon against the new corona virus; Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna also announced favorable data on vaccine testing; ③However, the vaccine will not be available in a few months, which means that by the middle of next year, people Travel and other activities will still be limited to slow the spread of the disease; Gain Capital partner John Kilduff said petroleum products are traded based on vaccine news. Before we see that the epidemic is under control, the market will suffer from weak demand. The quagmire, this will continue to intensify the situation of oversupply; ⑤OPEC + should announce after the meeting from 30 November to 1 December that the production cut will continue until next year; the alliance’s technical experts will meet to discuss this week; ⑥U.S. General Services Administration On Monday, President-elect Biden told the United States it can officially begin the transfer process; the transfer of US power must be approved by the federal agency
【2]The US Dow Jones Index broke the 30,000 mark for the first time in history and the energy and banking sectors skyrocketed; ① The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Index rose above the 30,000-point mark for the first time in history, due to hope for the new crown vaccine and U.S. presidential power The handover made so that the economy continued to move towards normalization and the enthusiasm of the stock market was rekindled; ② Boeing, which dragged the equity index down for most of the year, was up nearly 5% on Tuesday, while JPMorgan Chase, American Express and Chevron all rose more than 3%. Non-Dow component shares rose even more: American Airlines and Carnival both rose more than 8%, AMC rose 24%; ③ At 1:20 pm New York time, the Dow Jones index rose 1.77%, breaking through the 30,000 mark. It has been nearly four years since the index broke 20,000 points for the first time. For technical analysts, breaking through such a large integer is seen as a potential driving force for market sentiment, which is favorable to bulls chasing the rise; ④ The Dow and its cyclical components have risen 13% since Halloween. The rise is expected to peak since 1987. The rise of the Dow reflects the significant sector rotation in the market in November. As people’s optimism about the economic reboot increased, sectors such as energy and banking that were previously limited by stay-at-home orders have risen again; ⑤ Dennis Debusschere, Head of Portfolio Strategy at Evercore ISI, said, Investors will skip the recent noise and line up positions for economic normalization next year. Towards the end of the year, cyclical stocks will continue to rise, mainly because people realize they’re still big companies and everything else has happened. Main changes
【3]Société Générale predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 will be $ 51 / barrel; Société Générale analyst Michael Haigh and others wrote a report stating that, based on the baseline scenario, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 is expected to be $ 51 / Barrel, next year it is expected to be $ 55 / In this circumstance, OPEC + is expected to continue to effectively manage supply and the economy and demand will recover; assuming a bullish scenario, the Covid-19 vaccine will raise oil prices to $ 60 per barrel by the end of 2021; in a bearish scenario The price of oil will drop to 35 US dollars per barrel
【4]Barclays:The average price of US crude oil futures in 2021 is expected to be $ 50; Barclays maintains its expectation that oil prices in 2021 will be “higher than the consensus”. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 is estimated to be $ 53 per barrel and the average US crude oil futures price will be 50. USD / barrel, as the introduction of the new virus vaccine is expected the crown will promote global economic recovery and increase demand for crude oil in the second half of next year; As the global renaissance of the new coronavirus threatens global economic recovery, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) will postpone the production increase plan originally scheduled for January next year for at least three months to support the market
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