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Well | Current value | Daily change |
EUR / USD | 1.1302 | -0.47% |
GBP / USD | 1.2571 | -0.68% |
USD / JPY | 113.35 | -0.21% |
AUD / USD | .7179 | -0.66% |
GOLD | 1,243 | -0.20% |
WTI Crude Oil | 51.16 | -3.18% |
BTC / USD | 3,180 | -2.54% |
We continue to have an unusually active December in traditional financial markets, as the recent downward shift, the continuing problems of Brexit and the slowdown in the global economy add to a very nervous business environment. Volatility is particularly high in equity markets compared to seasonal averages, but currencies also have very active days, with the dollar clearly at the center of attention.
Today we have had negative titles in China, both with industrial production and with retail sales, which consensus estimates are missing a mile, and the history of economic releases produced by the country makes it even more terrifying.
Not surprisingly, the Chinese stock market is becoming a global leader, while the Chinese yuan is also among the weakest currencies globally, even amid improved trade sentiment. The risk-on currencies have had difficulties today, and the dollar is challenging its seasonality to the downside, negotiating very close to its last lows, confirming the broad change in risk-off.
Technical analysis
GBP / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
The British Pound continues to trade with relative relative weakness, and while Prime Minister Theresa May was sent home empty-handed from Brussels, with EU leaders refusing to renegotiate the Brexit project, the position of the money has become even more tremendous.
From a technical point of view, the cable has confirmed the key break with a failed pullback in the last two days, and without the major support found above the generational lows close to 1.20, the long-term probabilities now favor a test of that area, and the bulls should not place positions below the key level 1.27.
EUR / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
EUR / USD fell below the 1.13 level after accommodative growth and yesterday's inflation forecast from the European Central Bank and today's strong US retail sales ratio. The US economy continues to show relatively good performance compared to its global competitors, and although we think the slowdown will eventually reach the US, fiscal stimulus and labor dynamics could keep engines running for a while. # 39 ;.
This only increases the buying pressure that is pushing the USD up, and also the problems in the European financial system are increasing, which could lead to another lower round in the common currency next year. The main technical levels to be observed are still the support of 1.12 and the resistance at 1.4440, and with the broader downtrend that is clearly intact in the most traded currency pair.
AUD / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
AUD / USD fell below the bearish wedge pattern of negative Chinese news as we expected, and is now testing the 0.7165 support zone. A move to the 0.70 level is likely in the coming weeks, if the pair violates the support zone, and the short-term trend change is close to being confirmed, while the broader downtrend is clearly intact, with strong resistance ahead near 0.7250 and 0.74.
WTI Crude Oil, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Another rally attempt has vanished today in crude oil, and the crucial product continues to trade in a bearish consolidation range following the series of dead-cat-bounces. The top of the range is close to the price level of $ 54.25 a barrel, while strong support is in the $ 49.50- $ 50 a barrel range.
Given long-term high-energy momentum readings, bulls can open long speculative positions close to the bottom of the range, despite the clearly intact long-term downtrend, while bears should wait for a larger rebound to re-enter the market .
Key economic events on Monday
chartbook
Forex
USD / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
EUR / GBP, 4-hour chart analysis
EUR / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
AUD / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
GBP / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / CHF, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / CNH, 4 hour chart analysis
Commodities
Gold futures, 4-hour chart analysis
Copper futures, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Major stock indices
Futures S & P 500, analysis of the 4-hour chart
DAX 30 Index CFD, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-hour chart analysis
Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4 hour chart analysis
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