when the second wave reaches its peak, “all the ingredients are there for a new resumption of the epidemic”

“Just because the tide has gone out doesn’t mean we can go out on the street in peace. “ In one sentence, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, summarized, on Thursday 19 November during his weekly update, the balance that the government is trying to maintain as the first signs of reflux of the second wave of Covid -19 begin to manifest. .

If the circulation of the virus in France has been slower in recent days, it is still too early to claim victory and the population must continue to work to prevent further contamination. In other words : “It’s not because it’s falling that it’s low”, the minister insisted.

In fact, 32,345 Covid-19 patients are currently hospitalized in France, a level higher than the peak of the first wave. But the peak of November 12, where 32,654 people were hospitalized, has been exceeded. On Thursday, hospital services registered 2,200 new entries of patients with Covid-19, including 311 in intensive care.

“The recession will be a little slower than in the spring, analysis Mircea Sofonea, professor of epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier. In fact, the impact of the epidemic on hospital activity is different, because healthcare personnel continued to take on other pathologies, which did not happen in the spring. “ On Thursday the intensive care unit welcomed 4,653 Covid-19 patients in addition to 3,500 people with other diseases.

More than 150 medical evacuations

But the situation remains mixed in France, even though all regions are now affected by the rebound of the epidemic. In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, “Hospital pressure remains very high”, said the director general of health, Jérôme Salomon. The incidence rate is also very high, especially that of the elderly, higher than the national average. More than 150 medical evacuations of patients with Covid-19 have been organized in hospitals in other regions or in Germany, mainly from these two regions.

Importantly, the reproduction rate, the actual R, that is the number of new cases that a single infectious person will generate on average, is decreasing and fluctuates between 0.65 and 0.89 regions. A lower rate than that calculated before the curfew, decreed four weeks ago. “In a scenario with a reproduction rate of around 0.8, we should reach the threshold of 5,000 new cases per day by the end of December”, details Mircea Sofonea. This threshold is the one set by Emmanuel Macron to get out of the heavy restrictive measures put in place since October. An important goal because, “To control the epidemic, we must put in place a contact tracking effective, which is only possible if the number of cases is sufficiently small “, indicates Rodolphe Thiébaut, professor of public health in Bordeaux.

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