what is the real risk of contamination?

Before planning for Christmas or New Year, it is possible to calculate the risks. Researchers from the University of Georgia Tech in the United States have developed a site that estimates the risk based on the official number of new cases reported each day in a given location. Launched in July, the site saw its method validated by the publication of an article on November 9 in the prestigious scientific journal Human behavior of nature.

At 50 guests, the risk of a person becoming infected exceeds 50% anywhere in Europe

For the moment it is impossible to predict what restrictive measures will be put in place to regulate the year-end celebrations. Thanks to the site developed by American researchers it is possible to estimate in real time the risks that are run if these Festivals were held now and that we would be authorized to collect. To calculate these risks, the model takes into account, in addition to real-time data on the Covid-19 pandemic, the fact that the actual number of contaminations is 5 to 10 times greater than the number of positive tests. The user thus has the choice of calculating the risk based on these two hypotheses, 5 or 10. Therefore, we can select the number of guests we intend to meet or participate: 10, 25, 50, 100, up to 5,000 people. Furthermore, the site estimates, as a precaution, that an infected person remains positive for 10 days while the duration of contagiousness is estimated between 5 and 6 days.

With this data, organizing an event that brings together 10 people in Paris has a 16% chance that a person will be infected with Covid-19. The figure rises to 45% in the Savoie department and to 27% in the North department. If the number of guests increases, the percentage goes up. If we push 50 people, we have a 50% chance of being in the presence of an infected person, in Europe and the United States. In Paris, organizing an event with so many people carries the risk that at least one person is 86% infected. In the Rhône it is 99%.

Canadian Thanksgiving, the bad example

Another example that can allow us to anticipate the consequences of groupings during the year-end celebrations is Canada. On October 12, Canadians celebrated Thanksgiving. Two weeks after this national holiday, the number of recorded daily cases in the country went from 2,300 on the eve of this holiday to 3,000. Today, 4,000 cases are registered every day. “In some territories, we know that meetings during the Thanksgiving weekend have contributed to the increase in the number of cases we see today.Canada’s Deputy Director of Public Health Howard Njoo admitted in late October. “I think it’s reasonable to assume that the share of the increase we’ve seen in Toronto is related to Thanksgiving“Continued Eileen de Villa, head of the city’s health.

In the United States, Thanksgiving takes place on November 26 and raises concerns about an increase in cases. Prevention messages are multiplying, in particular from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the health authorities, who advise celebrating the party outside or fail with the windows open and respecting the barrier gestures. President-elect Joe Biden has urged Americans not to regroup with more than 10. I’m not sure if being understood as a poll in the state of Ohio suggests that two out of five residents intend to relocate. groups more than 10 people around the traditional turkey.