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The second wave of the coronavirus epidemic is present in French hospitals, with more than 500 deaths registered for the day of November 9 alone. The total number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 in France has so far reached 40,987 deaths since January.
But faced with these daily reports that are constantly increasing and the many daily statistics that we list, sometimes it becomes difficult to measure things. With a second imprisonment not always well lived, and which may seem unfair to those who are severely reduced, a question regularly arises: aren’t we doing a little too much?
Caregivers, on the front lines and in hospital tensions, regularly testify to what they face on a daily basis. One of the answers is perhaps to put the coronavirus and the usual causes of death in France into perspective. Exercise has its limitations because it is difficult to compare cancers, heart disease, accidents and viral diseases. But this helps provide an idea.
There is a first difficulty which is the exact count of deaths related to the coronavirus. The account is established through death certificates, in which Covid-19 is generally associated with comorbidities, in deaths in hospitals and nursing homes. Deaths at home can go under the radar. Since Covid-19 is a new disease, we have no statistical comparison or hindsight to accurately measure its results.
600,000 deaths every year in France
International comparisons are even more risky, not all countries count their deaths equally and some are even suspected of minimizing them.
For seasonal influenza, the DREES registers (Directorate for Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics) thus report 715 official deaths in 2013. But the application of statistical models and the analysis of variations in mortality then allows us to establish a better estimate (between 8,000 and 13,000 deaths per year in recent years). For Covid-19, for the moment we only have data relating to nursing homes and hospitals.
There are around 600,000 deaths each year in France. Here are some causes, taken from a 2017 Drees report on deaths in 2013:
Cancerous tumors were the leading cause of death (163,602) in 2013, ahead of diseases of the circulatory system (heart disease, vascular accidents, etc.) with 142,175 deaths.
Deaths follow, grouped under the name of “external causes”, with 36,920 deaths. This category includes accidents (24,915 deaths), transport accidents (3,157 deaths), accidental falls (6,657 deaths), poisoning (2,055), suicides (9,819), homicides (430).
With nearly 41,000 deaths, Covid-19 already overcomes these “external causes”, and comparing it to the deaths of 2013 in a year that is not complete. The first death in France was recorded in early March and in 2020 there are still just over 6 weeks left.
The death rate for Covid-19 is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1%, much higher than the flu. Comparison is also irrelevant. Quoted by AFP, Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin of Public Health France points this out “Covid-19 has a much higher mortality rate than seasonal flu and all surveillance data show it”. And this, despite the exceptional measures put in place to reduce its spread: imprisonment, mask, hand washing, physical removal …
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