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There are two predictions at the end of the coronavirus pandemic, and both are associated with vaccination – under the optimistic scenario, the epidemic will end in a year, according to the pessimistic scenario – in two years, says the corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. , doctor of biological sciences, head of the laboratory of biotechnology and virology, Faculty of Natural State, Novibirsk, University professor Sergei Netesov. He talked about it in an interview with “Lente.ru”.
“The optimistic forecast is next autumn, the pessimistic forecast is autumn 2022. It will all depend on whether they can produce enough vaccines to vaccinate at least 75% of the world population. Of course, in some countries, the epidemic may end sooner. But for this, it will be necessary to vaccinate not 75 percent of the population, but, probably, 90 percent, – said Netesov.
The virologist noted that, on average, four to five people are infected with a carrier, and 75% of the sick or vaccinated population is exactly what is needed to develop herd immunity with such a reproductive number.
“In simple terms – [переболеть должны] six billion. If we work out the simplest mathematical equation with all these initial data, it turns out that it will take 8 to 12 years to develop herd immunity naturally, without the participation of vaccines, “added the source of Lenta.ru.
Previously, Rospotrebnadzor said that a person will not be able to forget COVID-19 even with the advent of an effective vaccine. The restrictions due to COVID-19 will also remain until the virus no longer poses a threat to human health.
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