The virologist assessed the accuracy of the predictions for COVID-19: Company: Russia:


The head of the cell proliferation laboratory at the Engelhardt Institute of Molecular Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, virologist and biologist Pyotr Chumakov, in an interview with URA.RU, warned Russians about the need to be careful in predicting the behavior of the coronavirus based on mathematical models.

The specialist explained that humanity does not yet have the calculation algorithms necessary for a new infection. “In Britain, even before the start of the pandemic, it was predicted that millions would die, but that didn’t happen,” he said, explaining that it all depends on the algorithm used and could contain inaccuracies.

Many factors influence COVID-19 behavior, and the computation algorithms rely on information about old infections, Chumakov noted. He explained that all tests were performed on known infections, such as the flu. When a new one appears, it is not yet known what its diffusion coefficient is. “All that is now are estimates based on a very small number of observations and not always reliable,” he said.

Formerly honored physician of Russia, professor, doctor of medical sciences, pulmonologist Alexander Karabinenko said that the coronavirus can live in people’s bodies for generations, because even after an illness it can remain in the upper respiratory tract. According to the doctor, just like with the coronavirus, people have already been living with other infections for “many tens of thousands of years”. For example, he cited papillomavirus, Epstein-Barr virus, and other herpes viruses.

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