The road to historical lows »Brave New Coin

Since its launch, a year ago, the blockchain & # 39; Quantum & # 39; (QTUM) offered the best of both worlds, as it took elements of the Ethereum and Bitcoin network protocols to build a hybrid solution. He quickly acquired ideological traction in cryptographic circles and built a vast network of nodes and transaction activities.

However, as with many other Altcoin, its price table in recent times tells the story of an epic price increase followed by a dramatic fall. Starting with an initial listing price of $ 11.96 on August 18, 2017, QTUM rose to an ATH of $ 82.66 (Index) on January 7, 2018. Eight months later it is currently trading at $ 4.33, just above the minimum of $ 3.66. 19659002] The fundamentals of the network tell a similar fall from the history of grace with steadily declining performance and challenges that increase adoption. QTUM is a network with a few thousand nodes less than Bitcoin (6,277, this number was ~ 7,500 a few months ago), but witnessed a significant drop in the number of daily transactions and at the same time the decline in difficulties mining. [19659004]   QTUM 1 Transactions

Daily transactions on the QTUM blockchain, steadily declining in 2018.

  QTUM Difficulties

QTUM Difficulty, constantly decreasing until 2018

The difficulty follows the hashrate and measures how long it takes miners to add new blocks of transactions to a blockchain, while the hashrate measures how many hashes the miners do per second. The nodes determine the difficulty based on their ability to generate hashes.

Hashrate generally follows the price because a higher price means more money (relative value), which can be distributed among the nodes of the network, which means more incentives to distribute more data mining hardware, leading to subsequent rooms in hashrate.

A lower price, leading to a lower difficulty, could indicate a migration of miners away from a blockchain. The decrease in network activity concerns the long-term health of any network and the number of falling nodes of QTUM support this theory.

Contrast with the blockchain Bitcoin, which showed solid fundamentals – increasing hashrate and difficulty – despite a synchronous decline in the price of Bitcoin

Couples and exchanges of couples

  Couples QTUM

The most popular couples for the QTUM's trade are crypto-crypto with Bitcoin, Tether and Ethereum which account for almost 90% of the volume in the market. The 24-hour volume between the three pairs exceeds 100 million dollars. The most popular fiat-to-crypto pairs are the Korean Won and US Dollar options. Bitfinex is the most popular exchange for USD / QTUM trading, while Bithumb is more popular for KRW / QTUM trading.

  QTUMBTC x

The most popular exchange for BTC / QTUM trading is Samoa zb.com. Globally, the Binance and Huobi popular exchanges also offer the BTC / QTUM pair.

Innovating the hybrid blockchain

QTUM is a smart contracting platform designed to be compatible with Ethereum, using the same virtual machine and therefore smart contracts. He does this while trying to correct some of the perceived defects of Ethereum.

QTUM went from an initial testnet in June 2017, Sparknet, to a main network, Ignition, on September 13, 2017, a period of three to less than three months. QTUM was able to launch this quickly because it built its blockchain using code elements from the Bitcoin, Blackcoin and Ethereum blockchains.

From Blackcoin, QTUM takes a Proof of Stake consensus algorithm, while from Bitcoin it complements the UTXO model.

In Bitcoin's "Unspent transaction model" every reference input must be valid but not yet spent, with each transaction having a signature corresponding to the owner of the input, for each input.

This may seem obvious to function, however, with the Ethereum-based account-based system, a global status report stores a list of all accounts with balances, code, and internal storage. With the "balance" of Bitcoin is related to the total funds of a single user, for which they are able to provide a private key with a valid signature.

With the UTXO model, if the individual A has 10 BTCs in the wallet, this is associated with a single UTXO record of 10 BTCs. If the individual A wishes to send B 1 BTC single, their wallet is unlocked and the entire 10 BTC is used for the transaction, with 1 BTC sent to B and 9 BTC sent to a new UTXO address owned by A. [19659002] Now if B, before the initial transaction, had 1 BTC stored in single UTXO, upon receipt of the new 1 BTC, the recipient B, needs to unlock both UTXOs before the 2 BTCs can be spent.

This is a more complicated system than the Ethereum system that can be both powerful and intensive. However, because users have access to new addresses for each transaction, it increases the potential privacy and security of the Ethereum transaction model.

The model can also be considered scalable because multiple UTXOs can be processed concurrently, enabling parallel transactions and encouraging scalability innovation such as Segwit, which allows for the expansion of the UTXO database.

Performance improvement with trial

Numerous Ethereum competitors have boasted their ability to improve the throughput and transaction costs of Ethereum using alternatives to the ETH Proof of Work model.

Networks such as EOS and TRON offer DPoS (Proof-of-Stake) delegate consent, Cardano offers a unique Proof-of-Stake (PoS) method called Ouroboros, and QTUM joins this group of throne hunters, taking in loan PoS method of Blackcoin.

In QTUM's blockchain, anyone who taps QTUM tokens can produce a block, there is no There is no voting or control process for nodes – making mining on the block block QTUM a more inclusive system than on other mining counterparts put into play.

For QTUM to work with this PoS algorithm, a number of block production protocols have

Within QTUM, block production is assigned to the first staker that is able to produce a hash for solve the problem of the block (below a target threshold), with increasing difficulty to increase the dipstick (more power being used on the network) to ensure that the production of blocks remains constant.

This means that the ability to be assigned to a block is only as good as the ability to allocate processing power to the network.

In the processing power of the QTUM network it is determined, not by the ability of a node to produce hashes, but by the amount of QTUM it has staked.

Instead of producing multiple hashes to solve for multiple inputs, the nodes produce a single hash for UT XO control, interacting with a fixed input. A lottery determines if their hash falls below a weighted threshold, and if it does, the miner is assigned the block.

This algorithm is able to maintain the competitive, impartial nature, free from the constraints of Bitcoin mining, because the lottery is constantly reset with new fixed inputs. This project means that miners with higher odds see their UTXO divided into more lotteries, which means more chances to compete for entries, but minimal changes in the probability of winning every single lottery.

This system maintains a decentralized, immutable, censorship-resistant blockchain, maintaining control over electricity consumption and mining difficulties with a stakeout protocol. However, this style of consensus is well balanced. For example, if high throughput and hashrate is not maintained, this will eventually lead to more lottery winners (more solutions below the threshold), this causes forks and stakes lost due to outdated blocks.

In addition, other Proof-of- Pole methods have protocols for block allocations or guaranteed mechanisms to ensure a high probability of block allocation, which means that picketing is always "worth it". These other Proof of Stake algorithms also have scalability advantages over QTUM, in the same way they operate on the Bitcoin network.

Block allocation and consent is optimized in networks such as EOS and TRON, while QTUM's semi-PoW solution has the potential to create bottlenecks and extend transaction times as the network grows .

Similar to Ethereum and Bitcoin, QTUM hopes to integrate lightweight client protocols and exploit off-chain solutions such as Lightning Network, to solve its scalability challenges, rather

Technical Analysis

Regression Channel and MACD

On the 1D chart, the price of QTUM shows a negative linear trend, with a correlation of Pearson & # 39; s R between time and price of 0.84 from March (regression channel). Furthermore, the MACD indicator confirms the negative price dynamics for QTUM. However, the MACD proceeds slowly towards the top, which could indicate a possible momentum switch for the price in the coming months.

  QTUM TA6

On the 4H chart, the volume flow indicator (VFI) has consistently remained below 0 since March and has failed every violation attempt above 0 (black circles). The VFI interpretation is a value above 0 is bullish and below 0 is bearish, with divergences between price and oscillator being high probability signals.

  QTUM TA2

On the 1D chart, the RSI is currently well oversolded at 20, along with the price currently under its long term, regression mean. The aforementioned could provide a short-term price rise to QTUM towards the regression average of ~ $ 5.50. However, if the general trend persists, the price is expected to regress towards the trend average of ~ $ 3.50.

  QTUM TA4

Ichimoku Clouds with relative force indicator (RSI)

The Ichimoku cloud uses four metrics to determine if there is a trend; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross, Lagging Span (Chikou) and Senkou Span (A & B).

The current cloud metric status on the 1D frame with single settings (10/30/60/30) for the fastest signals is bearish; the price is under the Cloud, the Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is bearish and the Lagging Span is below the Cloud and the price.

A long traditional entry would have occurred with a price rupture over the Cloud, known as Kumo's breakout, with price maintenance over the Cloud. From there, the trader would use Tenkan, Kijun or Senkou A as their trailing stops.

QTUM is sitting at ~ $ 4.30 after finding support around the $ 4 level. As mentioned above, RSI is currently at the oversold level of 20 and begins to see an increase in trajectory. The RSI could indicate that QTUM could develop sufficient buying pressure to attempt at least one Kumo breakout in the coming weeks and months. The near support levels for the price are $ 4, $ 3.50 and $ 3. The price will have to exceed $ 7.20 for a Kumo breakout with a price target of $ 9 and $ 11.

  QTUM TA5

The status of the current cloud metrics on the 1D frame with doubled settings (20/60/120/30) for more precise signals is bearish; the price is under the Cloud, the Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is bearish and the Lagging Span is below the Cloud and the price.

Even considering current levels of overseas-paid RSI, a Kumo success in long-term settings is highly unlikely given the Cloud metric. The price would need to break and hold on ~ $ 15 (dish Senkou B) for a successful Kumo breakout with the target price of ~ $ 17 (flat Senkou B).

Conclusion

QTUM took some of the best elements of other blockchains, operable intelligent contracts, highly secure transactions and alignment of incentives for miners, and built a sizable network that continues to run a large ecosystem of Dapp and transactions.

Its price has required a number of hits in recent times, and the QTUM blockchain, along with a number of other networks focused on the smart contract – including Ethereum – is facing a market that seems to have ravaged ICO and Dapp hosting networks.

It also appears that the miners are choosing to give up the network as the price continues to fall. Falling node numbers can also be linked to the complexity of the QTUM consensus protocol, which has a certain positioning of "all trades, master of none" – not having the simple accessibility of traditional PoW networks or the guaranteed premiums of other PoS. networks.

The technical requirements for QTUM are firmly bearish, but the price may suffer a short-term respite given its current oversold levels. However, both prudent short-term traders (10/30/60/30) and longer-term trader (20/60/120/30) will wait for a positive TK cross and a Kumo breakout above $ 7.20 and $ 15, respectively, before entering a long position The short-term support levels of both traders are $ 4, $ 3.50 and $ 3. In the unlikely events of success of Kumo for QTUM, the trader's price targets (10/30/60/30) is $ 9 and $ 11, while the price target (20/60/120/30) is $ 17.

Disclaimer: This analysis was designed for informational and educational purposes only. Readers are invited to conduct their own independent research on individual goods before making a purchase decision.

About the authors

  BNC Christopher Brookins headshot pic4 Christopher Brookins
Christopher Brookins is the founder and CEO of Pugilist Ventures, a quantitative investment company focused on digital resources and blockchain technology. Chris has a deep knowledge and unique perspective on digital resources formed by his multi-faceted experience in stock trading, credit investment and business development in two West Coast startups (one acquired). He has been involved in the blockchain community since 2014.

  Profile of the author Aditya

Aditya Das
Aditya Das is Brave New Coin's market analyst. Raised in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, he received a postgraduate degree in Economics from the University of Auckland and a degree in Economics from the University of Sussex. Prior to joining BNC, his most recent roles were as a researcher and tutor of Economics at the University of Auckland.

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