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LONDON: The next two weeks will be “absolutely crucial” to ensure that the coronavirus blockade in England ends as planned on December 2, a government science advisor has warned.
Professor Susan Michie, a member of the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage), urged the public to resist breaking current rules, to “be able” to spend the holiday season with loved ones.
He also suggested that the announcement of a potential Covid-19 vaccine could lead to complacency with the measures, adding that the coup “won’t make any difference” to the current wave. It comes after documents released by Sage on Friday warned that a return to the tiered system of coronavirus restrictions will see infections rise again.
Asked what should replace the current restrictions at the end of the blockade, Prof Michie told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: “It’s too early to know. I think the next two weeks are going to be absolutely crucial.
“It’s going to be a very busy two weeks, partly because of the weather, partly because, I think, the promise of a vaccine could make people feel complacent. But the vaccine is very unlikely to make it through the end of the year or early next year and that won’t make any difference to the current second wave. So I think for the next couple of weeks, everyone really needs to put all their determination together.
Professor Michie, a behavioral scientist at University College London, advised the public to “really pay attention to resisting any urge to break the rules” about social distancing and visiting other families. Because this will maximize the chances that in two weeks, on December 2, we will be in a position where we don’t actually have to continue the blockade, “he added.
“And even better, what everyone wants is to be in a position where they can spend Christmas and the winter holidays with loved ones.”
Asked if this meant that gains during the lockdown would be lost, Professor Michie said she was “quite confident” after tough measures in Wales and Northern Ireland cut transmission rates.
The newly released documents, written the day before the second national blockade was imposed, show a consensus statement prepared by a subset of Sage models that raised concerns about returning to the tiered system.
The modeling found that if the lockout is “well respected,” it is likely to reduce the number of reproductions to less than 1, with hospital admissions and deaths expected to decline until at least the second week of December.
But the document, dated November 4, added: “If England reverts to the same application of the tiering system in place before November 5, the broadcast will return at the same rate of increase as today.”
Other documents from late October state that any hope that families will get together at Christmas will also depend on whether the R-value remains below 1 for “some time.” On Friday, Sage said the R rate for the UK fell to 1-1.2, with experts believing it is already below 1 in some places.
Hopefully, R will drop in more places next week or the following week as people remain restricted. Elsewhere on Friday, the government said another 376 people died within 28 days of the positive Covid-19 result.
As of 9:00 am on Friday, there were also a further 27,301 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK, up from 33,470 on Thursday.
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