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Before the implementation of the containment, this threshold of 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants corresponded to the threshold of “maximum alert”.
It hadn’t happened since mid-October: the incidence rate in France fell below the symbolic bar of 250 in the week of November 9-15, according to the latest data from Public Health France updated Wednesday. Recall that this criterion corresponds to the number of new coronavirus cases officially registered in the last 7 days, then reported to 100,000 inhabitants.
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The threshold of 250 is symbolic because it was, before the reconfirmation, the “maximum alert” threshold. Most of the departments that cross it could quickly take measures to limit the spread of the epidemic: curfew in metropolitan areas, closure of bars, limitation of gatherings …
The week from 12 to 18 October, for the first time since the spring decline, the threshold of 250 at national level was crossed. The peak was reached two weeks later, in late October, when the government decided to reconfirm the entire population. The incidence rate therefore approached 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
The infographic below shows the evolution of the rate since May. Click on the drop-down menu to view the evolution of this same indicator in your department.
Numbers affected by antigen tests?
However, it should be remembered that the antigen tests, which can be carried out outside the analysis laboratories, were not taken into consideration by Public Health France. These tests, much faster but much less reliable, are now counted in the positive test data, but only for a few days.
“It is advisable (…) to remain cautious in the interpretation of indicators related to RT-PCR tests (…) given the availability for 3 weeks of antigen tests, which may have led to a decrease in the use of RT-tests. PCR and therefore underestimated the incidence rate, “wrote Public Health France in its latest weekly epidemiological update, dated 12 November. “
However, their use remains in the minority for the moment and this drop in the incidence rate cannot be exclusively due to a statistical bias: “According to the data available on the volumes of antigenic tests carried out, it seems that their exclusion does not require the decrease of the observed incidence, “Public Health France said.
Carine Wolf-Thal, president of the National Council of the Order of Pharmacists, told France Info on Monday that around 150,000 people have been tested in this way since the beginning of the month. By comparison, labs can run one to two million PCR tests per week.
One indicator among others
Based on the number of positive cases detected each day, the incidence rate can vary very quickly depending on local testing capacity. An error in reporting cases, a decrease in the number of tests performed, or the simultaneous appearance of a few clusters in a sparsely populated area can increase this indicator very quickly.
The most reliable criterion for analyzing the evolution of the epidemic remains the number of serious cases of Covid-19: hospitalizations, intensive care admissions … Indicators in slight decline in recent days, but much less suddenly than the impact rate .
The number of deaths, however, continues to rise, which is quite logical when we know the traditional “cycle” of a patient dying from Covid-19 – the effects of confinement can hardly be felt on this new indicator for the immediate. In March, the Director General of Health explained the classic ICU admission process:
“You have been infected (…), you have about a week of incubation. Then you start to be sick, maybe you are less well, and it is from this moment that you will contact the hospital (…). So 15 days after this contamination is observed in particular the transition to intensive care “.
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