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It has been said that the Drake equation is “a wonderful way to organize our ignorance”. In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake, who later became director of the Carl Sagan Center for the Study of Life in the Universe, developed a mathematical formula to estimate the likelihood of finding intelligent aliens in the Milky Way. His equation, made up of just seven variables, has sparked heated debate over a puzzling puzzle known as the Fermi paradox. Decades later, his famous formula continues to influence the search for extraterrestrial life in the universe and, perhaps, determine someone’s chances of catching COVID-19.
Responding to the Fermi paradox
During a lunch break at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1950, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Enrico Fermi famously asked his colleagues a simple question “Where am I?” referring to the riddle of why humanity has not detected any signs of alien civilization given the vastness of the universe with one septillion, or 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, of stars, some of which are surrounded by planets that could likely support the life.
Johns Hopkins University reported that a new model inspired by the Drake equation developed by fluid mechanics experts at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering attempts to answer the question of the moment: “What determines someone’s chances of catching COVID- 19? “
The mathematical model estimates the transmission of COVID-19
In an article published in Physics of Fluids, researchers present a mathematical model to estimate the risk of airborne transmission of COVID-19. Insights into this new model could help assess how well preventative efforts, such as wearing the mask and walking away from society, protect us in different transmission scenarios.
No common “language”
“There is still a lot of confusion about COVID-19 transmission routes. This is partly due to the fact that there is no common “language” that makes it easy to understand the risk factors involved, “says Rajat Mittal, co-author of the article and professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering.” What really has to happen to be infected? If we can visualize this process more clearly and quantitatively, we can make better decisions about which activities to resume and which to avoid. “
Airplane danger
What is becoming clear is that COVID-19 is most commonly spread from person to person through the air, via small respiratory droplets generated by coughing, sneezing, speaking or breathing, according to a comment posted by 239 scientists in Clinical Infectious Diseases.
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Transmission variables
But the risk of getting COVID-19 infection largely depends on the circumstances, Mittal says. The team’s model considers 10 transmission variables, including the respiration rates of infected and uninfected people, the number of virus-carrying droplets excreted, the surrounding environment, and the exposure time. Multiplied together, these variables produce a calculation of the possibility of an individual becoming infected with COVID-19.
“The CAT Inequality”
“The CAT inequality is particularly useful because it translates the complex dynamic transport process of fluids into a series of simple terms that are easy to understand,” says Charles Meneveau, professor of mechanical engineering and co-author of the study on the proposed formula is called the Contagion Airborne Transmission inequality , or CAT inequality for short. “As we have seen, communicating science clearly is of paramount importance in public health and environmental crises such as the one we are facing now.”
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Depending on the scenario, the risk prediction from CAT inequality can vary widely. Take the gym, for example. We’ve all heard that working out indoors in a gym can increase your chances of contracting COVID-19, but how risky is it really?
“Imagine two people on the treadmill in the gym; both are breathing harder than normal. The infected person expels more droplets and the non-infected person inhales more droplets. In that confined space, the risk of transmission increases by a factor of 200, ”says Mittal.
Quantify the value of using the mask and social distancing
The team adds that the model can be useful in quantifying the value of mask wearing and social distancing. If both people wear N95 masks, the risk of transmission is reduced by a factor of 400, which is less than a 1% chance of contracting the virus. But even a simple cloth mask will significantly reduce the likelihood of transmission, according to the model. The team also found that social distance has a linear correlation with risk; if you double the distance, you double the SPF or reduce the risk by half.
Mysteries Linger
As with most COVID-19 models, some variables are known and others are still a mystery. For example, we still don’t know how many inhaled SARS-CoV-2 virus particles are needed to trigger an infection. Environmental variables, such as wind or HVAC systems, are also difficult to define.
Even with these uncertainties, the researchers believe their model provides a useful framework for understanding how our choices can increase or reduce our risk of contracting the virus. Infectious disease models are generally designed to be understood by experts. The model developed by the team, on the other hand, is accessible to everyone from scientists and policy makers to the average person trying to gauge their own risk.
The team hopes that taking a simple mathematical approach to a complex problem will spark new conversations about COVID-19 transmission, just as Drake’s model has inspired new research into intelligent alien life.
“With more information, you can calculate a very specific risk. More generally, our goal is to present how all of these variables interact in the transmission process,” says Mittal. “We believe our model can provide insights into future studies that will fill these gaps in our understanding of COVID-19 and provide better quantification of all the variables involved in our model.”
The Daily Galaxy, Andy Johnson, via Johns Hopkins University
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