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In the next few hours, French hospitals are expected to have more patients with Covid-19 than in the spring, during the first wave. In fact, nearly 32,000 patients are currently hospitalized, close to the peak of 32,300 recorded on April 14. The admissions rate isn’t slowing down – more than 3,000 every day. But against all odds, the virus’ reproduction rate – the average number of cases caused by a single contagious person – is declining: it’s currently at 0.93, according to the government app Tous Anti. -Covid. Are we therefore facing an improvement?
A figure that varies from one region to another
In fact, we can rejoice in this fact which clearly indicates an improvement in the health situation. Very concretely, a reproduction rate of 0.93 means that 10 people infected with the coronavirus will only infect 9. These 9 in turn will contaminate only 8, and so on. This figure is obviously an average: all coronavirus patients do not necessarily infect the same number of people.
The reproduction rate also varies by region. In detail, this reproduction rate is even lower in Paris and Île-de-France, where it reaches 0.8. In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, which is the region most affected by the virus currently, this rate is still slightly above 1.
Several encouraging data
It is still too early to say whether this encouraging overall decline is the result of the restrictions put in place in recent weeks, namely curfews and imprisonment. These figures should also be read with caution because dysfunctions in reporting infection data have been observed in recent days. But other indicators confirm this trend, such as hospitalizations, which are decreasing nationwide and which constitute reliable data.
However, it will take several weeks for this potential health improvement to be felt upon entry into ICU, which is therefore expected to remain massive, as well as mortality, over the next 2 to 3 weeks. The pressure on hospitals is therefore expected to remain significant.
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