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As the peak would pass, the number of cases of contamination in France has dropped significantly since late October, before the effects of the confinement could be felt. Experts point to a probable “multifactorial decline”.
The number of new Covid-19 cases has dropped dramatically since the beginning of November in France, coinciding with the time the containment was implemented. Confirming this trend, Public Health France stated on November 20 that the epidemiological peak of the second had probably passed. According to the health authority, which however calls for the maintenance of the barrier measures, the observation of the indicators suggests that the “epidemic peak of the second wave” has been overcome.
A decrease observed before the effects of childbirth
The Epidemiological Observatory of Wastewater (Obépine), launched in July to carry out real-time monitoring of the traces of the Sars-Cov-2 virus in wastewater throughout the national territory, has also detected the decline in traces of SARS- CoV-2 in Ile-de-France “well before curfew and imprisonment can bear fruit”. This is what the journalist Raphael Grably underlines on Twitter by publishing this graphic from the website of the Ministry of Higher Education, Research and Innovation.
On this curve, we can see an epidemic peak in mid-October, followed by a sharp drop up to November 2.
And the rest only confirmed the trend. According to data from Public Health France, the number of positive cases for Covid-19 increased from 48,000 on November 3 to 27,000 on November 12. If the Public Health Agency underlines this November 20 that “the indicators remain at high levels”, this decline is even more marked in some departments, and in particular in Paris, one of the departments most affected to date. In the capital we went from 2,000 new cases per day October 27 to less than 600 on November 12.
Of course, some are wondering about the causes of this mysterious drop in the number of cases. The failure to take into account the new antigen tests in the statistics, the effects of the curfew put in place in mid-October in Paris or are we in the process of obtaining collective immunity? It is difficult to decide. Quoted by The Parisian, epidemiologist Pascal Crepey, a teacher-researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes (Ille-et-Vilaine), is tending towards a multifactorial decline. According to him, “there is no specific factor but a number of reasons that explain this decrease and we cannot yet provide a definitive explanation”.
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