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The probability of a collision between our planet and the Apophis around the year 2068 is “small, but different from zero”, they point out.
The asteroid (99942) Apophis returns to the agenda of possible catastrophic collisions with the Earth during this century after a new estimate of its trajectory. According to Gizmodo, it is now calculated that the probability that it will impact our planet on a new date is one in 150,000.
When it was discovered in 2004, this space body worried astronomers for a while because they predicted that it might come closer to our planet in 2029. However, it is now known with great accuracy that on April 13 of that year the asteroid it will pass 31,000 kilometers from Earth, a distance less than that which separates us from some artificial satellites, but which does not involve any collision.
It took the astronomers several years to rule out the possibility of an impact within the next decade and even in 2036, when the Apophis would again cross Earth’s orbit near the planet’s predictable position at that time.
However, in 2068 the asteroid will return again, also in April, and astronomers discussed ways to take advantage of upcoming opportunities to get to know him better and prepare for that meeting at a virtual international seminar earlier this month.
One of the discoverers of the asteroid who presented a report at that event, Dave Tholen of the University of Hawaii (USA), commented in a statement to Gizmodo in the days before the seminar that “the scenario of an impact in 2068 is still in play” and that the risk is “small, but not zero”.
Another scientist, Andrew Cheng, of Johns Hopkins University, also in the United States, stressed the importance of studying both the exterior and interior of the asteroid. The composition, orbit and other properties of Apophis they may change as they pass close to Earth. Cheng and much of the scientific dispute have focused on an effect, called “Yarkovsky drift,” which assumes that a large loss of heat from a cosmic object alters its orbital path.
3,800 Hiroshima bombs
The Apophis is elliptical in shape and is more than 300 meters long. If it hit Earth, it would release the file equivalent to 1,150 megatons of TNT (trinitrotoluene) in an event that would be 3,800 times more powerful than the explosion caused by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. That is why the opportunity to observe it in 2029 is essential to know and predict the danger.
However, before that, in March 2021, when the asteroid passes 16.9 million kilometers from Earth, will be visible to telescopesastronomers stated. These observations will improve estimates of its shape and rotation, allow for better 3D modeling, and indicate possible landslides and structural failuressaid Yaeji Kim of the University of Auburn in the United States. From this knowledge it should be possible to make estimates of what is happening inside.
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