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Ripple (XRP) is currently trading in a narrow range against Bitcoin (BTC). The price broke resistance at 46.660 satoshi at the start of this month, but shortly thereafter it was retraced. Initially, the 45,860 satospheric resistance was transformed into support as the 4H graph above for XRP / BTC shows that Ripple (XRP) formed two red candles after stopping the resistance. However, both candles managed to stay above the resistance that transformed the support line. However, the third candle broke under the resistance of the 46.660 satosfer turned into support and entered again into a restricted area.
XRP / BTC was initially traded along 21 EMA on 4H card. He continued to trade sideways until yesterday when the price eventually broke significantly below 21 EMA and closed below it. This led to four other candles formed under 21 EMA on the 4H table for XRP / BTC. The last candle formed in the above table also struggled, but failed to exceed 21 EMA. However, in an attempt to do so, he formed a doji, which can be seen as a bullish signal that could ultimately push the price of Ripple (XRP) above 21 EMA.
Breaking the 21 EMA is crucial for Ripple (XRP) to clash with Bitcoin (BTC) and exit the range range territory. However, if the price remains below 21 EMA for the next week, it is likely to fall to 41,547 satoshis levels where it is expected to find strong support and could even complete the fix against Bitcoin (BTC) for the time being. The RSI for the XRP / BTC chart above shows that the price should remain limited until at least the beginning of next week. The analysis of wave trends for the table above indicates however the possibility of a breakout at the start of the next week that could push the price over EMA 21.
Many investors are focused on shorter time intervals to the point that when an analyst displays a graph at multiple time intervals, they find it ridiculous. It is true that past performance does not indicate future results and things could very well be different this time. However, long-term trends are very difficult to change and even more difficult to manipulate. As the weekly chart above for XRP / USD shows, the price has just completed a bullish gartley model and has now found support at the top of its trendline once again since August.
Meanwhile, RSI for the chart above has been in a deep wedge that extends to the end of 2017. At this point it will be very difficult to influence the result. Of course, RSI may first break slightly below the fall wedge, but in the long run it is expected to rise higher from here. If it were not for doing so, it would mean invalidating years of patterns in technical analysis even for Ripple (XRP). I understand that the sentiment at this time is extremely bearish and many in the cryptic community prefer to wait to see which way it goes after the outbreak rather than buying or selling now and this is absolutely satisfying. However, one should keep in mind that macro trends like these provide us with more realistic insights about what to expect in smaller time intervals. This is why it is important not to lose sight of the big picture when looking at price action on a 4H or a daily time frame.
