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If the Covid-19 epidemic continues to rampage, especially in Europe and the United States, where restrictions are on the rise, some encouraging news has come in these days to illuminate a hitherto very dark horizon.
“Reduction of the epidemic in France”
“We have begun to ease the epidemic,” Health Minister Olivier Véran said Tuesday.
“This does not mean that we have defeated the virus or that the epidemic is over, it means that we are still in a phase of significant active circulation of the virus but that we are in the process of regaining control over the dynamics of the virus. ‘Epidemic”.
“It is improving, your efforts are bearing fruit, it is important not to stop them”, insisted the Minister of Health.
Because for now, if the number of new cases is at a minimum for weeks, according to official data, the number of people hospitalized in France on Monday broke a new record, at 33,466 with 2,065 new patients in the 24 hours. And the resuscitation wards are always full. The number of patients currently hospitalized there has slightly increased to 4,903 patients compared to 4,880 the day before, while 508 new deaths have been recorded in the last 24 hours. Proof that it is “too early to claim victory and ease our efforts”, as Olivier Véran insisted on Monday.
The prospect of several effective vaccines
Another source of hope, this time in the long term: the Covid vaccine race seems well underway. Following the announcement last week by American laboratories Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech of a 90% effective vaccine, the biotech company Moderna said on Monday it was 94.5% effective. Meanwhile, the Russians of the Gamaleïa institute announced that theirs worked at 92%.
These results were considered very encouraging by the international scientific community. But these are only preliminary results, which at this stage concern only a small number of volunteers (94 for Pfizer / BioNTech, 20 for Gamaleïa, 95 for Moderna) and which have not yet been analyzed. of a detailed publication in a scientific journal, although Moderna provided more data.
Many issues therefore remain unresolved for the moment. How long do these vaccines protect? Does it openly prevent coronavirus infection, and thus the transmission of Covid-19, or does it only reduce the severity of the disease? Are they effective in people at risk, including the elderly?
The end of the tunnel, not before the end of 2021?
Now it is up to US and European pharmaceutical agencies to sift through data on the most advanced vaccines to see if they can get the green light. When? “If the data is solid, we can give the green light to the first vaccine by the end of the year and start distribution in January,” announced Guido Rasi, director of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on Saturday, which predicts availability of 6 or 7 different vaccines in 2021.
The French government also said on Tuesday “at the starting blocks to distribute a vaccine against Covid-19 from January, if validated”. But as the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO) reminded us, one vaccine alone will not be enough to defeat the pandemic as it will not be possible to immunize everyone immediately. Caregivers, the elderly and people at risk will have priority. Knowing that according to the EMA, “more than half” of the European population must be vaccinated to “be able to witness the decline of the pandemic”, which will require “at least 500 million doses in Europe”.
In short, by placing a vaccine on the market in January, its first effects on the spread of the virus “will be visible in five to six months, mainly next summer”, according to the director of the agency. And to vaccinate everyone “it will take at least a year”. Therefore, “at the end of 2021, we will have sufficient immunization”, hopes Guido Rasi. Provided, of course, that “everything is fine”.
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