rapid and massive tests could “eradicate the epidemic” in six weeks



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Mathematical models show that mass screening, even with less reliable tests, is much more effective in containing the outbreak than tests that are more sensitive but take longer to deliver results.

More effective and less painful than imprisonment, selection rapid and massive could “eradicate”epidemic from coronavirus in six weeks, says a new study from the University of Colorado at Boulder published in Advances in science. ” Testing 75% of a city’s population every three days reduces infections by 88% and quells the epidemic in six weeks », The authors attest, who modeled the effect rapid tests accompanied by the isolation of positive people. Even with a threshold of 50% of the people tested, the number of infections is reduced by 73%.

With 75% of the population tested every three days, the outbreak drops to zero in six weeks.  © Daniel B. Larremore et al, Science Advances, 2020

These rapid antigen tests however, they are the subject of many objections, because they are judged less reliable than RT-PCR tests and particularly in subjects with few symptoms. But the results are available in 15 minutes, and cost a lot less, which ultimately allows you to do more tests and thus be more efficient in detecting positive cases. ” Our conclusion is this it matters public health, it is better to have a less sensitive test with results the same day rather than a more sensitive test with results the next day. We could then isolate only the sick, which would avoid general containment », Explain the authors.

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