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Monero (XMR) lost 63% of its value from April to the end of June, but has since started to recover. The market capitalization currently stands at 2.16 billion US dollars, with a trading volume of 33.29 million US dollars in the last 24 hours.
The XMR is considered a private currency, which means that transaction and blockchain data are not public. Other privacy-focused currencies include Zcash (ZEC), Dash (DASH), PIVX (PIVX), as well as Ethereum (ETH) to a certain extent, which offer private or confidential transactions if necessary or selected.
XMR has these built-in default features, the use of ring signatures, whereby any member of a group can produce a signature on behalf of the group, without revealing the name of the group. identity of the individual signer.
Second-level scaling solutions are also developed on XMR, like Tari. The Tari protocol was announced in May by a team composed of the former chief-manager XMR Ricardo & # 39; FluffyPony & # 39; Spagni, the entrepreneur Naveen Jain and co-founder of Ticketfly Dan Teree.
Tari will introduce token creation, similar to colored coins on Bitcoin, ERC20 token on Ethereum and non-fungible tokens (NFT) in general. Tari's first project focuses on ticket issuance and is located in the crowded company of NFT projects such as Aventus and Blocktix, among many others.
Although Tari intrinsically adds the ability to launch ICO on XMR, Spagni said: "We will use different privacy optimization mechanisms compared to Monero, which should lead to sufficient privacy for fungibility, but eventually there must be a some of the privacy pullbacks to embrace the scalability required by digital asset issuers. "
Of all the privacy-related coins, XMR has consistently recorded the lowest number of transactions per day. Private privacy coins also hide all their value transmitted on-chain, so it is impossible to accurately determine their ratio Net transaction value (NVV).
XMR also consistently had the highest transaction fees among all the privacy coins. The commission for kB of an XMR transaction is quite low, but the default size for an XMR transaction is quite high.
The size of the large transaction is directly related to the ringing mechanism and will be reduced by 80% after the implementation of a protocol change called Bulletproofs, which are currently available on the XMR testnet. The audits are currently conducted and, save for any serious defects, the protocol will be updated during the next hard fork.
Throughout 2018, the XMR community noted a sharp increase in the hash rate, which could only be attributed to application-specific integrated circuits. (ASIC). XMR uses CryptoNight, a proof-of-work (PoW) consent algorithm, which had been ASIC-resistant for many years. This meant that CPU and GPU were the best options for mining. The introduction of ASIC mining can mean that the network becomes much less decentralized due to the squeezing of miners using less efficient hardware.
In response, the XMR team announced an emergency fork to change the PoW algorithm slightly and stop any ASIC that was currently mining XMR. The team also plans to slightly modify the algorithm every six months to prevent the ASIC from being used indefinitely.
The major obstacle in April reduced both the hashrate and the difficulty, confirming the suspicions that the ASICs had begun to dominate the hahrate. Mining profitability increased immediately, but has since fallen to pre-hard fork levels. Overall, many factors influence mining profitability, such as price, blocking time, difficulty, block premium and transaction fees. Cheaper transactions with the use of Bulletproofs can bring more transactions to the chain and increase mining profitability.
A metric for the dev activity of any currency can be found by tracking the GitHub number commits over time. Most coins use the GitHub developer community, which was recently acquired by Microsoft for $ 7.5 billion. The files are saved in folders called "repository" or "repos" and the changes to these files are recorded with "commit", which saves a record of what changes have been made, when and by whom.
Although commits represent quantity and not necessarily quality, a higher number of commits can mean a high activity. In the last year, XMR had 1,138 commits (graph below). In comparison, ZEC had 532, DASH had 231 and PIVX had 676.
However, the limited ability to memorize XMR can dampen its use and adoption beyond speculation or specific transactions. Institutional investors require custody solutions to which XMR is not compatible at this time. XMR can be stored on a hardware portfolio [Led using a development toolkit. The integration of the Trezor hardware portfolio was started a few years ago, but it has never been completed.
Regulatory concerns may also hamper adoption. XMR has recently been removed from numerous Asian stock exchanges and the US Secret Service has expressed interest in "legislative or regulatory actions" to prevent privacy-focused cryptocurrencies such as XMR and ZEC in illicit purposes.
Bittrex and Poloniex, which allow both US Traders, maybe one day it is necessary to remove coins to comply with regulations. Poloniex has recently been acquired by Circle and will probably announce several lists or delistings sooner or later
Although ZEC has recently been announced as a potential addition to Coinbase, the privacy feature will probably be turned off by default. According to the Coinbase blog post, some coins can be added "without the ability to send or receive using a local wallet".
While the minimum exposure to trading decreases potential speculation, threats to prohibit XMR trading suggest a specific purpose of privacy, which could increase the value of XMR. Black markets, dark money and shadow economies will continue to exist, regardless of legislation, which benefit from a private and confidential cryptocurrency. XMR also helps prevent unwarranted surveillance between innocents in a world where it has become a growing concern.
The volume traded on the stock exchange was led by the Bitcoin pair (BTC), with Tether (USDT) and US dollar (USD) pairs. mostly rounding out the rest of the volume. This is largely due to the lack of direct fiat gateways for XMR.
Technical Analysis
XMR largely followed the path of every other cryptographic resource in 2018, and now shows signs of a potential end to the problem. bearish impulse. Exponential moving averages (EMA), Ichimoku Cloud and Pitchfork can help to evaluate the trend transition or interim price action. Further basic information on the technical analysis discussed below is available here.
In the daily chart, the price went into free fall after two models of reversal of the bullish trend failed; a head and shoulders turned upside down and a double bottom Adam and Eve. Currently, the 50 / 200EMA is barred in a bearish manner with a price much lower than 200EMA. A violation of the 50EMA would suggest a scope for 200EMA to $ 183 US. The open interest on Bitfinex is currently 61% short and 39% long (not shown).
The Ichimoku cloud uses four metrics to determine if there is a trend; the current price in relation to the Cloud, the color of the Cloud (red for bearish, green for bullish), the Tenkan (T) and Kijun (K) cross and the Lagging Span. The best voice always occurs when most signals go from bearish to bullish or vice versa.
The status of the current cloud metrics in the daily time frame with single settings (10/30/60/30) for faster signals are bearish; the price is under Cloud, Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is bearish, and the Lagging Span is below Coud and above the price. A traditional long entry will not trigger until the price is above the Cloud.
The current cloud metrics status in the daily time frame with doubled settings (20/60/40/30) for more precise signals is also bearish ; the price is under Cloud, Cloud is bearish, the cross TK is bearish, and the Lagging Span is below Coud and above the price. Again, a traditional long entry will not trigger until the price is higher than the Cloud.
A bearish fork (PF) with anchorage points in December, February and April continues to keep the price in a downward channel. The PF is considered invalid with a candle near the upper limit of the diagonal resistance, which will probably occur this week.
On the weekly XMR / BTC pair, price continues to fluctuate within the long-standing upward trend PF with anchorage points in August 2014, in September and October 2016. The price will continually try to return to the midline (yellow) for the duration of the trend.
Conclusion
In terms of privacy technology for transactions, XMR strongly guides the package, but continues to follow other private currencies in terms of scalability solutions . With the addition of Bulletproofs, transactions will be smaller and cheaper, and blocking times will be lower, without sacrificing any privacy technologies.
Depending on the volume, the XMR / BTC pair should be used on the XMR / USD pair for chart analysis. Technical data suggest a long-term uptrend, with a return to 0.027BTC. On the USD pair, a bullish reversal is likely in the short term with targets between US $ 180 and $ 200.
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