Paris already wants to prepare for a third wave

Professionals have had some difficulty believing it. They feared statistical bias, poor reporting of certain data. Now there is no doubt: the peak of contamination corresponding to the second epidemic wave has clearly passed in Paris. Day after day, the figures show a sharp decline in new Covid-19 cases, more massive than in the rest of the country. Recently, this spectacular decline has been accompanied by a slight decrease in the number of hospitalized patients, particularly in intensive care. The death toll has not yet marked an inflection.

Calls to the SAMU, test results, amount of viruses in sewage, etc., the indicators converge. “All show a very strong decline, says Renaud Piarroux, epidemiologist at the Pitié-Salpétrière hospital and author of The wave (ed. CNRS). In the figures, the decrease in the number of contaminations is undoubtedly somewhat amplified by the fact that the cases detected by antigen tests are not counted. But the movement remains important. “ Throughout the Ile-de-France, “Viral circulation is less”, also observes the Regional Health Authority in the point published on Wednesday 18 November.

Two months ago, the Ile-de-France was preparing for the worst. At the end of the summer, Paris and Marseille were the two cities where the virus was most actively circulating. In a region where population mixing is intense, around a hyperdense capital, the health disaster would probably have been even more violent than in the spring, as the government had been slow to take strong measures and imprisonment proved less. strict compared to March.

The opposite happened. Paris certainly did not avoid the second wave. Between the June lows and mid-October, the number of people diagnosed with positivity in the past seven days skyrocketed from 6 in 100,000 to more than 600 in 100,000. But then it decreased, returning to 162 per 100,000 inhabitants at the last score, on November 14th. The incidence rate was thus practically divided by four in less than a month.

“The curfew was the decisive factor”

The result ? Paris is now the least affected department in the Paris region, but also one of the fifteen least affected departments in France. The virus affects most in the Corrèze or the Jura.

As for the hospital system, it is subject to less strain than expected. Instead of being overwhelmed and having to send patients to other regions, Paris hospitals were able to take in patients from more difficult areas. At its peak, the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care in Paris did not exceed 330, half less than the worst in the first wave. “If the improvement continues, the Paris hospitals will overcome this wave”, anticipates Anne Souyris, the councilor for health of the city of Paris.

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