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After two nearly identical Australia wins in Sydney, the ODI series moves to Canberra, but the scene change may not necessarily involve a change in the model. If the SCG was all about mace before, big mace and winning, Manuka Oval’s ODI story is pretty much just that, on steroids.
The last seven games here have been won by the team that beat first, six of which defended 320 and more totals. The totals of the last four first innings here, in chronological order, are 372 for 2, 411 for 4, 348 for 8, and 378 for 5.
Despite all the talk about the Indian team’s balance and lack of bowling penetration, their failure to win the draw so far has also contributed to their results. But even as the coin continues to work against them in Canberra, there’s a chance for a little more parity between the parties with David Warner and Pat Cummins missing.
Having already wrapped up the series, Australia may still have been pondering the changes. India could do a few too, not least with an eye on Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami’s workload management ahead of the Test series.
This could then open up an opportunity for someone to step in and make a statement. India has lost five ODI in a row: their latest such sequence, in January 2016, also saw a series of toothless bowling performances in Australia. That sequence ended with a win in their ODI final of that tour, which featured a captivating show by a surprise ODI rookie named Bumrah.
Shape guide
Australia (last five games completed, most recent first): WWWLW
India: LLLLL
In the spotlight
Sean Abbott returned to the Australian team thanks to his scorching form in the Sheffield Shield: 14 wickets in three games at 17.92 and 261 runs at 130.50, including a hundred maiden first class. Will he be able to transfer that form to white ball cricket?
He made brilliant starts in the first two ODI but failed to kick off, and that can’t keep happening, especially on flat shots like these, if Mayank Agarwal takes a long time from the ODI side of India. He currently has a strike rate of 103.61 from five ODI, but a higher score of only 32. This may be his last chance in a while to prove he can play bigger innings.
Team news
With Warner out, Australia could trade with D’Arcy Short or Matthew Wade at the top of the order, or push Marnus Labuschagne into the order – he volunteered for the role – and deliver Cameron Green an ODI debut. Judging by Aaron Finch’s pre-match words, the first option seems more likely. Sean Abbott, who has been in formidable form with ball and bat in the Sheffield Shield, looks set to replace Cummins and play his first ODI since 2014.
Australia (possible): 1 Aaron Finch (catt), 2 Matthew Wade / D’Arcy Short, 3 Steven Smith, 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Moises Henriques, 6 Alex Carey (sept.), 7 Glenn Maxwell, 8 Sean Abbott, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood.
India might give some of its fringe players a chance with the streak already lost, but predicting their XI is never an easy task. Of those not yet present, Kuldeep Yadav and Shardul Thakur seem the most likely to get a game.
India (possible): 1 Mayank Agarwal, 2 Shikhar Dhawan / Shubman Gill, 3 Virat Kohli (capt), 4 Shreyas Iyer / Manish Pandey / Sanju Samson, 5 KL Rahul (week), 6 Hardik Pandya, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 Shardul Thakur / Navdeep Saini, 9 and 10 two by Mohammed Shami / Jasprit Bumrah / T Natarajan, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal / Kuldeep Yadav
Pitch and conditions
The Manuka Oval has one of the flattest grooming tracks in Australia historically, as well as some of the longest borders. A hot day is expected with a maximum temperature of around 26 degrees Celsius.
Statistics and curiosities
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Of all the reasons for hosting at least five ODI this century, the Manuka Oval was the fastest scoring, with an average ODI execution rate of 6.36.
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India will not have happy memories of their last ODI in Canberra. It was 277 for 1 century of courtesy from Shikhar Dhawan and Virat Kohli, and it took 72 out of 75 to win. But Dhawan’s wicket triggered an incredible collapse, the last nine wickets fell for 46 runs as Kane Richardson went mad.
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Kohli needs 23 races to reach 12,000 in ODI. If he arrives on Wednesday, he will have reached the limit in 242 innings. Sachin Tendulkar, the previous fastest at the finish, finished in 300 innings.
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Mohammed Shami is two 150 wickets in ODI.
Quotes
“The wicket is so real that it has good pace and bounces. And once you get in, you can really cash in. It’s a beautiful outfield. It’s great ground, so you’ll probably get more value for your shots across the gap. Take two or more. three more often than you do on some smaller terrain. You can start racking up fast runs there. On the other hand, if you throw well early with that extra pace and bounce off the wicket, you can do some damage. Both teams will obviously try to use that new ball very well. “
Aaron Finch playing Manuka Oval
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