Is the vaccine rush advancing, a real hope for the economy?

The announcement of a 90% effective vaccine candidate on Monday, according to an interim evaluation to be investigated, was welcomed by all the world stock exchanges, but unwilling to ignite in this period. During the day, the European markets were all up sharply. The Paris stock exchange took 5.46%, Frankfurt 5.56%, London 5.05% and Milan 5.48%. Since its opening, Wall Street has experienced a similar euphoria. The Dow Jones was up 5.63% to reach a new high and the Nasdaq gained 1.25%.

Such an outbreak now carries with it a double hope. In addition to solving the health crisis, could the coronavirus vaccine (Pfizer’s or otherwise) solve the crisis and save the economy?

Insufficient validation

First, we need to isolate the stock market reactions from the rest of the economy. Monday fever is more “a classic reactionary exuberance of the stock markets, which are reacting stronger and more brutally than reality”, feared Frédéric Bizard, a health economist. Also, by this Tuesday morning, they had returned to a more traditional level.

To return to the previous economic level, validation of the vaccine alone will not be enough. “It will face many post-development obstacles, whether in production, storage or distribution”, notes Frédéric Bizard, according to whom the production forecasts announced by Pfizer – 1.3 billion doses during the year 2021 – are “fanciful and they move away from the field of health to become communication. “

Population vaccinated, economy recovered

In other words, in the short term, even with a vaccine validation, “the economy is not expected to improve. Not for a long time ”, for the economist. Infectious disease specialist Nathan Peiffer-Smadja wants to be more optimistic: “If the vaccine is validated, we can hope to aim for a vaccination campaign this summer in France, thanks to an emergency authorization and rapid distribution.” As for the doses, “many more vaccines are in the works, and if they are successful there is no reason why the others will not work either, which will naturally increase doses with many vaccines available in the short term.” “

However, with a vaccinated population, everything will become simpler: “If we stay at this 90% efficiency, we will be able to manage the disease much more easily and succeed in what we are currently failing: tracing the chains of contamination and identifying cases. . secondary. ”From there, all the current levers of economic restraint could be lifted: catering, travel, rallies, festivals and the economy totally restart.

The economy, the contract of trust

And if you find these projections still too hypothetical, one thing is certain for Frédéric Bizard “, the arsenal against Covid-19 is gradually strengthening.” A signal necessarily well interpreted by the economy, which significantly increases confidence in the future. ” All the scientific advances we are seeing reinforce the odds that we will succeed in the medium term. It is a more promising hope for the economy than if all the tests failed, and we added sadness to sadness. Hence the importance. to publish this type of interim results.

To the point of risking distorting certain studies to adapt them to the economy? Nathan Peiffer-Smadja immediately breaks this idea: “Studies are properly validated, with large security files, and quick results don’t necessarily mean badly done. It’s important to stop the growing distrust of these results.”

Because here is what is at stake and the key to saving the economy with a vaccine: the participation of the population. According to an Ipsos poll on Tuesday, only 54% of French people would agree to be vaccinated. And for both experts it is clear that with such a small percentage the coronavirus epidemic waves would continue and the economy could not recover normally. For Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, “at the same time as the vaccine rush must begin the race for the confidence of the population. “Because we remember it one last time: difficult to advance the economy without confidence.