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The last few days have been of maximum tension in the Colombian Caribbean due to the passage of two hurricanes: the first Eta, category 4; and, subsequently, Iota, category 5, the maximum for this type of event. Both left great devastation throughout the San Andrés y Providencia archipelago.
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To the above is added the alert issued, on November 18, by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) and according to which, in the next few days, a new storm of large proportions could occur near the peninsula of La Guajira.
This, according to Ideam, due to the formation of a new tropical wave – the phenomenon considered the ‘genesis’ of hurricanes – in Venezuelan waters and which could continue its course towards the Colombian Caribbean.
“It is a tropical wave that has developed in the last few days. He went from a 20% to 40% chance of development. However, we have the good news that in the last few hours its probability has dropped to 30 percent, “said Yolanda González, director of Ideam.
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Despite the foregoing, several experts consulted by this journal have ensured that although due to its location in the Caribbean, La Guajira is subject to the impact of tropical waves and tropical storms (the step before the formation of a hurricane), it is unlikely that this happens in the next few days.
“Tropical cyclones pose a threat to our Caribbean coast, particularly the northern part, as well as to the archipelago of San Andrés and Providencia. And for this Colombia is part of the Hurricane Committee of the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association for the Caribbean“Says meteorologist Cristian Euscátegui.
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According to the expert, tropical waves are born very close to Africa, and it is normal for them to cross the Atlantic Ocean, from east to west, until they reach America, being processes that increase the rainfall for a few days when they enter the national territory.
It is no coincidence, but it responds to a very hot year, in which month after month temperature records were broken all over the planet
“Just in the last few hours a tropical wave has passed, which occurred on November 18 in the west and in the center of the Caribbean region with no chance of turning into a tropical cyclone”, indicates Euscátegui.
According to him, the transit of tropical waves this year was very marked, due, in large part, to to a very warm ocean and environmental conditions that favor its development and activity.
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For his part, Mauro Maza, Doctor of Marine Sciences and Associate Professor at Bolívar University of Technology, adds that, according to the records, this year is already the season with the largest number of meteorological events in the Caribbean, with a total of 31 between tropical waves, storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean.
“This situation could have a direct relationship with the rising sea temperature, which acts as a ‘fuel’ for these events. It is no coincidence, but it responds to a very hot year, in which, month after month, temperature records have been broken across the planetMaza says, adding that this is a very clear manifestation of where global warming is going.
Maza points out that recent studies on the relationship between climate change and hurricanes have found that they will not only increase in frequency, but will begin to be more intense.
“Tropical storms are getting stronger, and Higher category hurricanes will be more common“, nut.
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