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We are in section 24UR on where we are with the covida-19 epidemic, how little we know about the virus and how much we have already learned, about new measures, communication between managers, closed schools and a vaccine that can change the rules of the game. Focus spoke to the country’s chief epidemiologist. Miha Drozg spoke with Mario Fafangel, head of the Center for Infectious Diseases.
Mario Fafangel, a prominent epidemiologist also known for his Primorska singing, raven curls with a silver sheen and a red mask with the Star Trek logo, was a guest on 24UR Fokus.
When asked where we are currently in Slovenia in the epidemic, he initially replied succinctly: “On the heavy. “He then went on to say that we are all at a difficult point and that in reality there is no country in Europe that would successfully tackle the epidemic this autumn-winter period.
Furthermore, we also have a realistic valuation problem where is it in fact we are. “We have reached that plateau of buffers, of tests, and this means that the light with which we have illuminated our path to know what awaits us is no longer so strong. This is the problem in predicting what lies ahead. ” says Fafangel, who describes the current number of positive tests as catastrophic. “We don’t see a way forward, maybe we have an iceberg behind us. At the same time, we have to rely on other metrics, like numbers on late arrivals, because you’re not in the hospital the day you get sick. Let’s look at those. numbers now, then but we have another parameter that follows hospitalizations … and these are dead, which I find even more difficult to watch “.
Fafangela is currently most concerned about our health system, which, he says, is undernourished at all levels. “Our concern is to help everyone. Both those who have covid and a young man who needs urgent knee surgery, otherwise he will not be able to run for life. And with covid, this is exactly the problem, it can cause that we cannot provide it., “warns the epidemiologist.
He said the outbreak cannot be fully controlled unless society shuts down completely, which obviously brings other bad things. “We buy time with all the measures, but there is still a need to test, test, test, this is still a paradigm. It is not just a question of turning on the light, but also of finding the sick and isolating them. However, we are just braking. The light that came on at the end of the tunnel is not epidemiological, as this condition is dark … the light is vaccination. This moment is not that long anymore, now we have to squeeze ” He said.
Fafangel said that at the moment it is difficult to control epidemiologically some outbreaks of infections, because the virus is everywhere: you have a risk at home, a risk at work, a risk when you move …, as he said.
“Right now it’s hard to poke and cut with a scalpel, we have to rely on wider measures. At the end of the day, however, it all starts and ends with the individual, so we don’t have such contacts to be a ‘super diffuser’ of the virus. I go to work, I come home, I hope my daughter is still awake and I see her, and a new morning. I can’t be a super spreader because I act like I can’t be “, explain. He points out that the system must allow people to work in this way, for example by working from home, which, of course, is not possible in many cases.
“When the numbers are again such that contact monitoring is relevant again, we will look for clusters of infections, clusters. We are not the reason for the curve, we are the result of the curve … and the whole system went like this, advanced epidemiologists , so we have reached a plateau in testing and the third pillar is our health care. This doesn’t have to reach the limit, securing our health system is our top priority “, emphasize.
Mortality in our country is a reflection of the age structure of society, the age structure among patients and the transmission of infection. “We have excellent doctors here, but it’s just a covid for which there is no cure, and once it gets into a vulnerable population, that’s it.” with sadness in his voice says Fafangel.
We know very little about the virus, he further points out, but we have learned a lot. “Who knows everything, I trust less ” he says.
He says the virus is also difficult to control due to asymptomatic carriers, for whom we don’t know how many, or how relevant they are to transmit the infection, but they are certainly relevant, he says.
“As a doctor, I will still bang my head if we did a little too much with the new tightening of the measures, but if we had to choose who will go on a respirator in seven days, I would not just hit my head”, he said of the new measures taken by the government. “My wish is that we should not issue ordinances, but that we should get together and help all of us (government, doctors) to provide the conditions for this – that when you are sick, you can be home, if you have had contact, you can be home … “is added.
Fafangel says, among other things, he thinks a lot about children who can’t go to school right now. “Before I fall asleep, before I collapse in bed, schools are always on my mind. But I also find it difficult to define myself as a profession, what is important now. Let’s see the debate we have in Slovenia … Yesterday I saw protests in France about roads schools should be closed / … / It is difficult to find a balance between safety and open schools, but I dare to say that the data still show that schools are not an accumulator of this infection, at least in children under ten. ” But they are a reflection of the move into society. And when there is as much of it as there is now in our country, it is extremely difficult to have schools without entrances and schools open, guaranteeing safety “, draws attention to the difficult balance. He stresses that a compromise will have to be found, but that we must be aware that infections in schools will be, even if the measures are phenomenal, as there are so many transmissions in society. “But the priority is to have schools open”, He adds.
We also learned from this crown how important internal ventilation is, but it also emphasizes that we must spend as much time as possible outdoors, even if the weather is not the most favorable.
What about communication with managers? “Communicating is … difficult Right now. However, unified communication is important to emphasize that we don’t have all the answers. I certainly don’t have them, but I do have some expert opinions I can give if they’re useful to someone, “he says with a smile.
For these most basic and most important measures – hand hygiene, protective mask and, above all, as few contacts as possible or staying at home – to be taken on a general level, it is not enough for someone to explain it and present the daily data, Fafangel says. “When we speak today, it is important to have confidence. To be an independent profession, to say it with the best knowledge I have now, and that’s it”,says the journalist Miha Drozga.
What about his enthusiasm for Star Trek? “This vision of community, of unity. Humanity is united in greater achievements and covid should be an example of when we come together. ‘Live long and prosper'”,he says.
The vaccine is the beginning of the end of the epidemic, Fafangel confirms, but it should not make us fall asleep, but give us further motivation to resist until then with as few deaths as possible. “We need to be ready when the vaccine is available, we shouldn’t be surprised – what will we do now, who will vaccinate, how will it be counted, where will the data be … And then the holidays, better times”,finally smiles with a visible hope in his eyes.
“Stick to your bubble, act like you are infected, but right now. Stick to these few general principles and you won’t be disappointed if we just ‘hold back’ because we’re just ‘holding back’, we’re not going to stop the epidemic. It’s a matter of it is. very difficult to keep under control now, so … stay at home ” Mario Fafangel concludes with a key message.
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