does the “R0” rate drop below 1, towards a regression of the epidemic?

Users of the TousAntiCovid application may have noticed this when turning on the phone: on Thursday, the “R0” rate rose to 0.93 in France and 0.91 in Hauts-de-France. This Covid-19 reproduction rate is based on emergency room admissions. When it is less than 1, it means that the outbreak is receding, that a patient is infecting less than a person around him. A carefully monitored indicator to adapt the management of the health crisis.

By early March, this rate had risen to 3.4. During her first imprisonment, with more stringent rules than in November, it had dropped to 0.5. In July, the R0 broke the bar again to climb to 1.49 in August.

Hospitals still under pressure

So is this a good sign? ” The reliable figure on which we can calculate the R is the number of hospitalizationsepidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet specified this morning on Franceinfo. On hospitalizations in the emergency room, on the number of cases, there are so many other parameters that come into play that we are still a little cautious. So, for the moment on the ladle, without having the figures yet, we have reason to think that with this confinement we will be between 0.8-0.9. “

The tension in hospitals does not weaken. On Monday, the country recorded its highest daily toll since the start of the second epidemic wave with 551 deaths in 24 hours in hospitals. In France, 4,803 ICU beds are occupied by Covid patients on Thursday, November 12, a figure that has been increasing a little every day since the beginning of the month.

Caution remains in order

” The peak of the epidemic is ahead of us. The second wave is still progressing. Tonight we overcome 1,807,479 cases and deplore 40,987 deaths. France is the fourth country in the world by number of cases. The utmost vigilance must be absolutely maintained “, Warned Jérôme Salomon, director general of health, during a press conference earlier this week. Caution also on the part of Prime Minister Jean Castex for whom ” this is certainly not the time to loosen the clamp “He will speak this Thursday at 6pm.