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Lessons learned from other coronaviruses that emerged during the 21st century (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) show a slightly different scenario. A study that monitored weather conditions during the SARS outbreak in China in 2003 showed that the peak of infections occurred in spring weather conditions. (It was not possible to confirm this phenomenon from other studies as the virus later became extinct).
Regular outbreaks of MERS also occur in spring (March to May) in the Middle East. However, this may have less to do with climate than with camel biology. Humans can pass on the MERS virus to each other or become infected by contact with camels. Young camels are a source of infection and new animals are born in March. However, the precise role these animals play in transmitting the virus and the exact mode of transmission are not known.
Southern hemisphere
You can also see what happened in the southern hemisphere during the winter there. South Africa reported more than 700,000 cases and had a significant spike in July, while New Zealand controlled the infection very well and recorded fewer than 2,000 cases of COVID-19 over the same period.
These two countries are very different in many ways, so it’s not very useful to compare them directly. But it appears that colder weather in July and August was likely not the main factor in the trajectory of infection rates. New Zealand appears to have managed to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 thanks to its geography, the quality of its health system and the effectiveness of its public health response. He could have done it, whatever the weather.
Early data from Australia suggests low humidity would be a factor to watch out for and a better indicator of the risk of a COVID-19 rise than temperature. However, in Melbourne, a major outbreak broke out in July, coinciding with a cold spell. This led to rigorous containment which continued until October.
Overall, it would not be surprising to see more COVID-19 cases during the colder months. But the one thing we know for sure about SARS-CoV-2 is that new viruses may surprise us.
We also know that coming into close contact with other people gives the virus the opportunity to spread, regardless of the temperature. People who do not live under the same roof must therefore maintain a physical distance and wear a face cover in confined spaces.
Unfortunately, it is only by going through this pandemic that we will learn exactly how climate changes are affecting the situation.
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This text first appeared on The Conversation French-Canadian site. Reproduced with permission.
“Science in its Words” is a forum where scientists from all disciplines can speak, in open letters or extracts from books.
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