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Why is the number of COVID-19 cases reported across Europe now? Many countries ended their lockdowns in the early summer, but only in the fall did most countries start noticing a significant increase in coronavirus again. The reopening of schools and universities has led to a larger crowd, but could lower temperatures also play a role?
We know that many people have colds and flu in winter (colds can be caused by some types of coronaviruses), but there are several potential reasons for this. It’s often attributed to people spending more time indoors when it’s colder, coughing, sneezing, and breathing next to each other.
You are more likely to choose the option of traveling by crowded bus or train, rather than walking or cycling to work in cold, wet weather. Another theory is that people produce less vitamin D when there is less sun and therefore have a weaker immune system.
What studies have shown on other viruses
However, studies have shown that the annual increase in colds and flu coincides in particular with the decrease in outside temperature and indoor humidity. Flu viruses survive and spread more easily in cold, dry air. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the same may be true of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which is similar in size and structures.
Laboratory experiments with coronaviruses and similar viruses have shown that they do not survive well on surfaces when the temperature and relative humidity are high, but comfortable room temperatures could be an ideal environment to last a few days. And at refrigeration temperatures (4 degrees Celsius) and relatively low humidity, they could last a month or more.
As now, COVID outbreaks have been reported repeatedly among workers at meat packaging plants operating under these conditions. However, these factories also contain large numbers of people working side-by-side and shouting to be heard above the noise of cars, which would show they would be more likely to spread the virus. Their common living conditions can also favor transmission.
Lessons learned from other coronaviruses that emerged in the 21st century (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) tell a slightly different story. A meteorological study during the 2003 SARS outbreak in China suggested that the spike in infections occurred in the spring. But there was no way to confirm this with further studies, as the virus eventually disappeared.
What is the impact of temperature on the coronavirus?
Regular fireworks this happens in the spring (March-May) in the Middle East. However, it may be less related to time and more related to camel biology. People can walk among themselves or camels. Young camels are a major source of infection and the animals are born in March.
You can also watch what happened in the Southern Hemisphere during the winter there. South Africa reported over 700,000 cases and peaked in July, but New Zealand controlled the infection very well and had fewer than 2,000 cases of COVID-19.
These two countries are very different in many ways, so it’s not that useful to compare them directly. But it appears that colder weather in July and August was likely not the main factor driving infection rates. New Zealand appears to have maintained its spread of SARS-CoV-2 due to geography, the quality of the health system and the effectiveness of the public health response. Maybe he could have done it, whatever the weather.
What role does humidity play?
Data First Australians suggested that low humidity would be a factor to consider and was a better guide for the increased risk of COVID-19 than temperature. However, a severe outbreak occurred in Melbourne in July, which coincided with a period of cold weather. This led to a strict lockdown, which only ended in October.
Finally, it seems like a good idea to prepare for more COVID-19 cases in the colder months. But the one thing we’ve definitely learned about the coronavirus is that new viruses can surprise us.
We also know that close contact with others allows the virus to spread, regardless of the weather. So we need to keep a physical distance from people we don’t live with in the same family and wear masks everywhere.
Unfortunately, we will learn exactly how climate change actually affects the pandemic as we go through it.
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