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Why is the reported number of COVID-19 cases on the rise across Europe now? Many countries ended the lockdown in early summer, but it wasn’t until the fall that most countries started seeing a significant rise in coronavirus again. The reopening of schools and universities has led to more congestion of people, but could lower outside temperatures also play a role?
We know that many people get cold and flu in winter (colds can be caused by types of coronaviruses), but there are several potential reasons for this. It’s often attributed to people spending more time indoors when it’s colder, coughing, sneezing, and breathing next to each other.
They are more likely to choose the option of traveling by crowded bus or train, rather than walking or cycling to work when the weather is cold and wet. Another theory is that people produce less vitamin D when there is less sunlight and therefore have weaker immune systems.
What studies on other viruses have shown
However, studies have shown that the yearly increase in colds and flu coincides in particular with the decrease in outside temperature and humidity inside. Flu viruses survive and are more easily transmitted in cold, dry air. So it is reasonable to believe that the same may be true of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which is similar in size and structure.
Laboratory experiments with coronaviruses and similar viruses have shown that they do not survive well on surfaces when the temperature and relative humidity are high, but a comfortable room temperature could be an ideal environment for them to last a few days. And at refrigeration temperatures (4 degrees Celsius) and relatively low humidity, they could last a month or more.
As now, there have been repeated reports of COVID outbreaks among workers at meat packing plants operating under these conditions. However, such factories also contain large numbers of people working side-by-side and shouting to be heard over the noise of the machines, which would show they would be more likely to spread the virus. Their common living conditions can also encourage transmission.
The lessons of the other coronaviruses that appeared in the 21st century (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) tell a slightly different story. A meteorological study during the 2003 SARS outbreak in China suggested that the spike in infections occurred in spring weather conditions. But there was no way to confirm this with further studies, as the virus eventually disappeared.
What impact does the temperature have on the coronavirus?
Regular outbreaks also occur in spring (March-May) in the Middle East. However, this may be less related to time and more related to camel biology. People can walk from each other or from camels. Young camels are a major source of infection and the animals are born in March.
We can also look at what happened in the southern hemisphere during the winter there. South Africa reported more than 700,000 cases and peaked in July, but New Zealand controlled the infection very well and had fewer than 2,000 cases of COVID-19.
These two countries are very different in many ways, so it’s not that useful to compare them directly. But it appears colder weather in July and August was likely not the main factor in determining infection rates. New Zealand appears to have kept the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at a distance due to its geography, the quality of the health system and the effectiveness of the public health response. Maybe he could have done it in any weather.
What role does humidity play
Early data from Australia suggested that low humidity would be a factor to consider and was a better guide for the increased risk of COVID-19 than temperature. However, in Melbourne, there was a major outbreak in July, which coincided with a cold spell. This led to a strict lockdown, which only ended in October.
Finally, it seems like a good idea to be prepared for more COVID-19 cases in the colder months. But the one thing we’ve definitely learned about the coronavirus is that new viruses can surprise us.
We also know that close contact with others allows the virus to spread, regardless of the weather. So we need to keep a physical distance from people we don’t live with in the same family and still wear masks everywhere.
Unfortunately, we will learn exactly how weather changes actually affect the pandemic it is going through.
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