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There are always a multitude of plots that go into the Masters. This year is no different. Indeed, there is a lot more to discuss with the tournament’s unprecedented move in November.
But the bigger question may be about Bryson DeChambeau and what he will do at Augusta National with his transformed physique and game. This is the first major since DeChambeau shattered the conventional wisdom of golf with his six-stroke win at the US Open.
The traditional approach to the US Open, especially those conducted on classic courses such as Winged Foot, was to proceed cautiously along uneven fairways. DeChambeau overturned that theory, knocking down Winged Foot with abandon.
Augusta National is always a course that has favored long hitters. Its wide fairways allow players to be aggressive right from the tee. Since Tiger Woods dominated the 1997 Masters, the course has taken steps to shorten the driving distance, but it still remains a huge advantage. Long hitters can carry many of the fairway’s bunkers and access even larger portions of the fairway.
“On # 1, to take the bunker to the right, to bring the bunker to # 2, to take the bunker to # 8, (and) to take it over the hill on 14 and 17, you really want to fly the 315 ball -320 minimum, “Phil Mickelson recently said. “It sounds like a lot, and it’s a lot. It’s just that if you can fly (that far) there you have a chance to take advantage of some of those holes. “
DeChambeau led the PGA TOUR at driving distance last season. He averages 325.6 yards from the tee to the Winged Foot.
I decided to estimate what DeChambeau is capable of off the tee at Augusta National. I have known him since the days of amateurs, when I presented my DECADE course management system to him. DeChambeau, who won both the NCAA and US Amateur Championships in 2015, credited him with saving him on one shot per round.
I created DECADE in 2014 to bring an analytical approach to course management, an area of the game based primarily on tradition, not on the data artifacts that are now available.
I had no idea how big the void I was filling in the world of golf was. Golf is such an exciting sport and emotions don’t help you think clearly in the heat of battle. DECADE allows novice players to make optimal math-based decisions to score as seasoned veterans.
Emotions also hinder the ability to speculate about what might happen in the future. DeChambeau’s dominant win at the US Open sparked a flood of emotional speculation about what he might do at Augusta National, or more ominously, Augusta National.
That said, let’s use math to make our best guess as to what we can expect from DeChambeau this week. I superimposed Winged Foot’s tee-shot motif on Augusta National satellite imagery to estimate where it will hit him this week. Obviously a variety of factors, from tee placement to weather and wind, could affect his driving distance, but there’s no doubt his tee shots will be the talk of the tournament. He has the opportunity to achieve the most dominant driving performance at Augusta National since Woods averaged 323 yards from the tee in 1997, a figure that has yet to be surpassed.
Below are DeChambeau’s four tee shots on the first hole of Winged Foot: yellow is the first round, purple is the second, blue is the third, and red is the fourth round tee shot. The red lines represent a target / shot model 65 yards wide and 300 yards from the tee box. (Note: Sixty-five yards is the standard pilot shooting spread of a PGA TOUR player.)
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