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To tie. USD currency. Gemini Dollar. Base (RIP).
If 2018 was the so-called stablecoin, or cryptocurrency price-pegged, then what will the new year bring? While it is impossible to predict the future with absolute certainty, here are five hypotheses based on the same impressionomanzia of the Ledger. (All right, we'll admit that we have it this wrong.)
Below are our 5 forecasts for 2019. (This is not an investment advice, yada, yada.)
1. The cable loses traction. For years the questions have broken on the solvency of Tether, historically one of the most popular stablecoin projects. Expect that rival salaries of the likes of Circle, Coinbase, Gemini and others can eat at the Tether monopoly once enjoyed. Even if Tether does not follow the way of the Base, which closed at the end of 2018, its prominence will probably fade as investors flock to the safest vaults.
2. The ticks of Facebook coin WhatsApp. Facebook has been interested in payments at least since deceiving David Marcus from PayPal in 2014. Previously head of messaging products, Marcus led the media giant's secret blockchain initiative in the past year. The recent rumors suggest that it is preparing to release a remittance product based on WhatsApp in India. After an approximate 2018, the company could use a victory right now.
3. Regulators slap a big kahuna. This year the Securities and Exchange Commission will swing towards bigger goals. Perhaps he will consider XRP, the second most important cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalization, as an unregistered security, in which case he will surely hit Ripple, the money supplier, with fines. Or maybe the SEC will drop the hammer on an exchange of cryptocurrency for not joining money laundering and knowing the laws of customers. We will bet that there are penalties in store for other celebrities who have also pumped "the first offers of coins". #BlessUp
4. Bitcoin ETF wins the approval. As industry matures, conditions are maturing for a traded exchange fund based on Bitcoin or ETF. The coldest heads prevail among retail investors, after the bubble. Bakkt, a finance company carried out by the people behind the New York Stock Exchange, is preparing for the debut of a physically regulated bitcoin futures market, improving liquidity. At least one SEC commissioner, Hester Pierce, agitated to make a Bitcoin ETF green. By the way, keep an eye on next month's decision on VanEck's application.
5. The hangover will last. Cryptocurrency prices will not claim their 2017 highs at any time. Global geopolitical tensions, volatile equity markets and the voices of a looming economic downturn ease the investment outlook for such a risky asset class, at least in the short term. It is worth noting that there is disagreement among the ranks of the Ledger here. My colleague Jeff Roberts thinks the price could rebound first. I believe we have not seen the bottom yet.
How are you placing your bets in the new year? Do you agree with our intuitions? Disagreement? Send us your thoughts, opinions, forecasts. We will highlight the best presentations in an upcoming newsletter.
A version of this column appeared for the first time in Fortune The Ledger, a newsletter that covers the vanguard of finance and technology. Sign up here.
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